000 AGXX40 KNHC 030756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3...GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. MWW3 GUIDANCE USED FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...MAINLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WRN GULF WITH FRONT. THE LATEST ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 24N88W...AND IS MAINTAINING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGHOUT. LATEST OFFSHORE BUOYS...AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE INDICATING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE GULF. IN ADDITION...THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0220 UTC AND 0400 UTC CORROBORATE THESE WIND SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE W-NW AT 5-10 KT S OF 27N E OF 90W...S-SW AT 15-20 KT FROM 24N TO 28N W OF 91W...SW AT 10-15 KT IN THE N CENTRAL PORTION...AND SE-S AT 10-15 KT S OF 24N W OF 90W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 1-2 FT E OF 88W...AND 2-4 FT W OF 88W EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE FAR NW GULF. THE 1014 MB HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE TO S FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WELL W OF THE GULF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES TO BECOME SLY THROUGH THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF. THE SLY FLOW WILL CONSIST OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS IN THE NW GULF. THIS SHOULD LIKELY BRING SEA FOG CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR WRN GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GULF. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PSN OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF EARLY FRI WITH SLOW SWD PUSH INTO OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR A LINE FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NE TEXAS BY FRI AFTERNOON. DURING THE DAY ON FRI STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS S PUSHING THE FRONT SEWD N OF ABOUT 25N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL UNDER A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE WRN GULF INTO SAT WITH POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG IT NEAR 25N96W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO INDUCE N-NE SURFACE TO 10M WINDS OF 20- 25 KT FRI WITH POSSIBLE NARROW SWATHS OF 25-30 KT N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 26N...AND POSSIBLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE RANGE OF 7-10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0036 UTC...0216 UTC AND 0218 UTC LAST NIGHT DEPICTED MOSTLY GENTLE NE-E WINDS UNDER A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SHIP "PDBP" SAILING NEWD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 0600 UTC PSN OF 14N74W IS REPORTING NE WINDS OF 20 KT LEADING ME TO BELIEVE A TIGHT GRADIENT STILL EXISTS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN MISSED BY THE ASCAT PASS. THE DATA FROM ASCAT PASSES MATCHES VERY WELL WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PORTION WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES HAVE DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS NE SWELLS THERE HAVE ABATED. THE LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOYS THERE SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE PRESENT OBSERVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THU...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING AND THROUGH FRI. ON SAT WINDS DIMINISH SOME AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BASIN SLIDES EWD. NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL MATERIALIZE JUST TO THE S AND SW OF HISPANIOLA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THESE INCREASES IN THE WINDS...THE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU...AND TO THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT FRI AND SAT. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SECTION ON SAT...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 7-9 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 27N72W WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE 0220 UTC ASCAT PASS CLEARLY HIGHLIGHTED S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 24N E OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 68W...AND N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 60 NM IN THE W AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE LIGHT TO GENTLE RANGE DUE TO A PERSISTENT WEAK PRES PATTERN. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 5-7 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS PRIMARILY DUE TO NE SWELLS...AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NWP MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED ABOVE THE 1009 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH TO ENERGIZE THE TROUGH INTO A COLD FRONT WITH EWD PUSH TO A PSN FROM NEAR 28N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES NEAR 26N65W TO N COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND CONTINUES TO FURTHER WEAKEN ACROSS THE SE WATERS WED BEFORE EXITING THOSE WATERS WED EVENING. THE 20-25 KT WINDS THAT WERE CAPTURED BY THE ASCAT PASS IN RELATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND FRONTAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS SHORTLY AFTER 15 UTC TODAY AS THE STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCING THE WINDS ALSO EXITS THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SAT WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTER MOVING FROM W TO E JUST N OF THE REGION. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES CENTER N OF THE AREA WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WIND REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY NE-E WINDS...IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS...AND LIGHT SE-S WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE 5-7 FT SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS LOWER TO 4-5 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THU BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TO 5-6 FT LATE THU...6-7 FT IN NE SWELLS FRI AND 6-8 FT ON SAT. A SWATH OF NE-E 15-20 KT IS EXPECTED S OF ABOUT 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS FRI AND SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.