000 AGXX40 KNHC 021916 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3...GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. WEAK 1015 MB HIGH ACROSS S CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN WITH SW TO WSW WINDS NEAR 15 KT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. BENIGN FRONT MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA ATTM WITH WEAK TRAILING BOUNDARY FROM NEAR PORT CHARLOTTE W TOWARDS 27N86W...WITH SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING SSW. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO THE S AND SE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WELL NW OF THE GULF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS OVER MOST OF THE ZONES TO BECOME SLY THROUGH THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF. WARM MOIST SLY AIR FLOWING OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS IN THE NW GULF SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THU...BUT ATTM HAVE NOT ADDED INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH GEFS MEAN- ECMWF CONSENSUS INDICATING LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE TO MODERATE... BUT THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE FRI AS A MASS OF COLD AIR SURGES SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS SHORTWAVE ACROSS ATLC ALONG 65W SINKING SLOWLY SE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND E CENTRAL CARIB...AND AIDING IN INDUCING SELY STEERING FLOW ACROSS E CARIB AND ATLC E OF 70W. VERY WEAK PRES PATTERN YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN WITH MAX WINDS TO 20 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA AS DEPICTED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRES PATTERN REMAINING N OF THE AREA OVER ATLC BASIN INTO EARLY WED...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS. BY LATE WED AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THU...AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING AND THROUGH FRI. NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL MATERIALIZE JUST TO THE S AND SW OF HISPANIOLA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THESE INCREASES IN WIND...THE SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI. NE SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH ACROSS W ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY E AND SE AND IS ABOUT TO EXIT AREA...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF SE U.S. COAST ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY SFC LOW AND BENIGN COLD FRONT. STLT AND OBS SUGGEST FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N77W TO NEAR PBI AT 18Z WITH TROUGH ALONG E COAST OF FL YESTERDAY AHEAD OF FRONT AND ACROSS NW BAHAMAS. OBS AND RECENT ASCAT PASSES REVEAL SE TO S FLOW AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS...WITH 15-20 KT S WINDS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS. 12Z SHW ANALYSIS SHOWED WW3 STILL 1-3 FT LOW ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS IN THE FADING NE SWELL GENERATED BEHIND RECENT FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN...AND 1-2 FT LOW ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IN NE SWELL FROM E ATLC LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS W ATLC TODAY INTO TUE THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY E AND SE AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO FLORIDA STRAITS TUE MORNING...FROM 25.5N65W TO NW CUBA WED MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SE WATERS BY THU MORNING. RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES N OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONNECTED TO THE SURFACE FRONT WILL TRACK NE THROUGH MID WEEK AND GENERATE MODERATE NNW SWELL ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG S-SW WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING E OF AREA TUE. HIGH PRES TO SHIFT OFF FL PENINSULA TUE NIGHT AND INTO ATLC BEHIND FROM WED THROUGH THU. BY FRI THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EWD TO JUST NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E WINDS S OF ABOUT 26N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS INDUCING SEAS OF 5-7 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.