000
AGXX40 KNHC 011902
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
202 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. 

WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CAROLINAS TO SE LOUISIANA 1025-26
MB THIS MORNING...WITH TRIO OF LLVL TROUGHS ACROSS FL
PENINSULA...E CENTRAL GULF...AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALL BREAKING
UP PRES GRADIENT...AND THUS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS SE
PORTIONS AND STRAITS PAST SEVERAL HOURS. PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
THROUGH THE STRAITS SHOWING ONLY AROUND 15 KT OF WIND FROM
1442Z...AND DOWNWIND SHIP OBS NOT ANY HIGHER. SEAS LIKELY 6 FT AND
FALLING IN NRN YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT OTHERWISE THE IMPROVING TREND
HAS COMMENCED. 

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. THIS WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF LATE MON. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES
WILL SLIDE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE
AND WED. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OVER
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS IN THE NW GULF RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE SEA FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF BY MID WEEK. LATEST SST ANALS
SUGGEST COOLEST WATERS OFF SE TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS WITH
WARM TONGUE EXTENDING NW TOWARDS OUTER COASTAL WATERS OFF OF
CORPUS CHRISTI. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE HIGH PRES
CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR
WESTERN ATLC WED AND THU...ALLOWING INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE S CENTRAL AND SE GULF WED INTO THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS 

WINDS AND RELATED SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS ANALYZED TO 8 FT AT 12Z
OFFSHORE OF MEXICAN COAST. PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1528Z SHOWING
NE WINDS 15-20 KT STILL SPILLING ACROSS CUBA AND TOWARD GULF OF
HONDURAS...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE YIELDING HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE
GULF ATTM. SHEARLINE HAS WASHED OUT TO W OF W ATLC TROF AND
CONDITIONS NOW IN IMPROVING TREND. WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE
ACROSS ERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRES PATTERN N OF
THE AREA AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS LESS THAN
6 FT OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL NOT BUILD N OF THE AREA UNTIL MID WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ENHANCED WINDS TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THEN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
INCLUDE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...AND COAST OF COLOMBIA...WED
INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND. 

STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS FROM 34N52W TO NEAR 28.5N70W...WITH
UPPER CONVERGENCE TO W OF SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG 66-67W ATTM ACTING
TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY SHEARLINE THAT CONTINUED W OF FRONT. NE
WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUE E OF UPPER TROUGH BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF TO
AROUND 15 KT W OF UPPER TROF. WW3 FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION WELL
UNDERDONE AT 12Z ANALYSIS WITH MUCH BROADER AREA OF 8 FT SEAS TO W
AND SE OF WW3...AND MAX SEAS 11-12 FT WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST
WINDS JUST TO NW OF FRONTAL ZONE. BUOY 41009 JUMPED BACK UP TO 10
FT AT 12Z...AS WAS 41047...SUGGESTING ANOTHER PULSE OF NE SWELL.
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND ACTUALLY FLATTEN AND RESULT
IN WEAKENING OF FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WINDS...AND THUS WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN SLOW DOWNWARD TREND AND NW HALF OF AREA NEXT
24-36 HOURS AS RIDGE ALONG E COAST ALSO WEAKENS. THIS TO LEAVE A 
RELATIVELY LIGHT PRES PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE. AS DISCUSSED PAST FEW DAYS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MON INTO TUE. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS WITH SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINAS N OF THE AREA LATE MON...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE WATERS N OF 27N MON INTO TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG S WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 28N
MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND W WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRES
OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N E OF 70W LATE MON INTO TUE. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED AWAY FROM STRONG W FLOW PAST WITH LATEST RUNS. NW SWELL
WILL THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS WED INTO THU BRINGING
SEAS 8-9 FT NE PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK PRES PATTERN AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS TO PREVAIL W OF SE PROGRESSING FRONT...EXPECTED
TO REACH SE BAHAMAS TO ROUGHLY 30N60W BY 12Z WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.