000
AGXX40 KNHC 010800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. MWW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEAS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1026 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
CREATE A SUFFICIENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH CMAN AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS PERSIST FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRES LIFTS NE TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. THE SAME ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT OFF THE
NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AN OVERNIGHT LOCAL EFFECT THAT
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS WELL. THIS LEAVES LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
GULF TODAY AND MON...KEEPING A WEAK PRES PATTERN WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH
MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. THIS
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF LATE MON. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE AND WED. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND MOIST
AIR NORTHWARD OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS IN THE NW GULF
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF BY MID
WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE HIGH PRES CONTINUING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLC WED AND
THU...ALLOWING INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SE
GULF WED INTO THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3/NWPS FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

NE WINDS AND RELATED SEAS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR WINDS TO 20 KT STILL NOTED BY
SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WINDS WERE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT THE WINDS AND SHEAR LINE HAVE WEAKENED AS
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS
NOTED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA. THE SAME ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION
INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS WELL
AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. ELSEWHERE
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC W OF 55W...HIGHER OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AFTER THE WINDS
DIMINISH LATER TODAY...THE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRES PATTERN N OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 6
FT OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL NOT BUILD N OF THE AREA UNTIL MID WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ENHANCED WINDS TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THEN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
INCLUDE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...AND COAST OF COLOMBIA...WED
INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND. MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST N OF A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM
29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. BUOYS REPORT
SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 65W. THE STRONG NE
FLOW IS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWING ALONG
70W...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. WHILE HIGH
PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS NE TO THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THE STRONGER HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT AS
WELL...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH N OF THE SHEAR LINE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NE SWELL ALSO WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY. THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT PRES PATTERN WILL LEAVE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA MON INTO TUE. A LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MON
INTO TUE. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED
LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINAS N OF THE AREA LATE
MON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE WATERS N OF 27N MON INTO TUE. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG W WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N E OF 70W LATE MON INTO
TUE...WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WED INTO THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.