000
AGXX40 KNHC 301910
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

1040+ HIGH ALONG ERN SEABOARD CONTINUE TO CREATE SUFFICIENT PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SE GULF AND STRAITS...BEHIND STALLED SHEARLINE IN
NW CARIB...FOR PERSISTENT NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT EXCEPT
9 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL. WW3 1-3 FT LOW ACROSS S HALF OF BASIN
THIS MORNING AT 12Z. HIGH TO SLIDE NE AND LEAVE WEAKENING RIDGE TO
THE SW AND INTO N GULF THROUGH TONIGHT FOR FRESH NE FLOW SLOWLY
ABATING ACROSS SE PORTIONS...BEFORE WIND AND SEA DROP OFF QUICKLY
SUN-MON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUN
THROUGH MON. THIS WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE N COASTAL
WATERS LATE MON INTO TUE BEFORE LIFTING OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LIGHT
PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW AND
SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF INTO MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY SET UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TUE INTO
WED AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COOLER WATERS
IN THE NW GULF WILL ALSO ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SEA FOG BY
TUE NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS 

SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH
15Z ASCAT PASS REVEALING WINDS STILL 20-25 KT NW OF
SHEARLINE...AND 25 AND GUSTY IN GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE BROAD LOW
PREVAILS. SEAS LIKELY STILL UP TO 8-9 FT IN ENTRANCE TO GULF THERE
IN NNE WIND SWELL. ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS AREA OF SOLID 25 KT OFF
OF COLOMBIA IN CARIB JET ZONE...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...AND
OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SPEED MAX SE OF BARAHONA IN THE DOM
REP...SPILLING THROUGH MONA PASSAGE AND DOWNWIND WHERE SEAS HAVE
TO BE TO 8 FT. MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE N OF THE AREA STARTS TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL START SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELATIVELY LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA....WITH MAX
SEAS TO 5 FT EXPECTED BY 72 HRS. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODELS.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GEFS MEAN

STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR
27N73W THEN SHEAR LINE TO W CENTRAL CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS PERSIST ALONG AND NW OF THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE...AND WERE
CAPTURED BY 14-15Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWING LARGE AREA OF SOLID 25 KT
NW OF BOUNDARY BETWEEN 68W AND 74W...WHERE PEAK SEAS TO 12 FT ARE
FOUND. BUOY 41009 HAS JUMPED BACK UP TO 10 FT AT 12Z THIS
MORNING...AND REMAINS 8-9 FT WHILE 41012 IS STILL AT 9 FT. LONG
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN WAVE GROWTH THROUGH TONIGHT DESPITE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AND VEERING WINDS...AND THUS SEAS TO SUBSIDE SLOWER
THAN WINDS NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SW N ATLC
AND BAHAMAS INTERACTING WITH FRONT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG AND SE
OF FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT FAVORABLY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CONVERGENCE BEHIND TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
FRONTAL ZONE BY SUN MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUN THROUGH MON...WITH A NEG TILT MID/UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS MON INTO
TUE. LOW PRES FORMS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND LIFTS NE...PROVIDING
FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS N OF 29N E OF 75W ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. GFS COMING BETTER IN LINE WITH GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF ON SFC
LOW WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON VORT CENTER ON E SIDE OF LOW...AND THUS
LESS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR BASIN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.