000
AGXX40 KNHC 290746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
246 AM EST FRI NOV 29 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS
BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1033 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE BASIN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF
WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSISTS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT
RANGE OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS. THE NE WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
PRES STRENGTHENING IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE SE GULF WILL DIMINISH SAT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT IN
MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE SE
STATES. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE BETWEEN MODELS
AND MODEL RUNS. THE CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NE GULF MON INTO TUE ASSISTED IN PART BY BROAD LOW PRES
DEVELOPING N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT STILL LOOKS SHORT LIVED
WITH LITTLE IMPACT BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS
BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WEST OF A
STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SEAS TO 10 FT ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS THE
FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE. ELSEWHERE BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN PERSISTENT FRESH E FLOW. THE
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE WATERS NE OF LEEWARD ISLANDS...SUBSIDING LATER
TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS
BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO EASTERN CUBA BUT IS STARTING
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO A BLOCKING RIDGE E OF THE AREA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS S OF 27N W OF THE FRONT AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE W
OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 3-5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TODAY INTO SAT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES INTO THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHIFTS NE AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.