000 AGXX40 KNHC 280759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EST THU NOV 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING HOWEVER...A TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GFS AND UKMET...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...STILL HINT OF A BRIEF RESURGENCE OF NE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR SE GULF LATE FRI INTO SAT RESULTING FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRANSITING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THIS EVENT HAS DECREASED A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS. FORECAST CALLS FOR 25 KT WINDS OFF WESTERN CUBA FRI NIGHT...THE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THROUGH SAT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REGARDING MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON...WITH THE GFS THE MAIN OUTLIER. THE UKMET AND CMC ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOLUTION...SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE NW GULF BY LATE MON. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN UPPER FORCING APPEARS FARTHER EAST IN ALL MAJOR MODELS...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A WEAKER AND MORE SHORT LIVED BOUNDARY ENTERING THE NW GULF WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE CORN ISLANDS OFF NICARAGUA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM GALES PRESENT IN THIS AREA PREVIOUSLY. SEAS ARE LIKELY REACHING AS HIGH AS 11 FT OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS IN THE STEADY AND STRONG N FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF COLOMBIA LATE THU THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SUN AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WEAKENS AGAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W THROUGH TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT 20 TO 30 KT NW WINDS IN MOST AREAS W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO 22N77W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BY LATE THU...THEN WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI INTO SAT THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES N OF THE AREA WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO SUN. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.