000 AGXX40 KNHC 270759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND FOR SEAS HEIGHTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL SWEEP SE OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE PERSIST OVER THE FAR SW GULF NEAR VERACRUZ...VERIFIED RECENTLY BY BOTH A SHIP OBSERVATION AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. AREAS OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE NOTED IN BUOY DATA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE STRONG COLD AIR IS FLOWING OVER RELATIVE WARM LOOP CURRENT WATERS. THE STRONG FLOW WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR SE GULF MOVING INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH INTO THU ACROSS THE GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING N OF THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT WILL ALLOW A RESURGENCE OF 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DIMINISHING TO MODERATE FRESH NE FLOW SAT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT AS PUSHED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND REACHES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY STRONG NW TO N WINDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE TODAY WITH 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL STALL THU FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE...15 TO 20 KT E WINDS ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 20 TO 25 KT NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. N AND NE SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS TO 9 FT IN WATERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THU. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF COLOMBIA LATE THU THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AGAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT PERIOD EXCEPT EARLY TODAY DUE POSSIBLE GALES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AMZ111 AND AMZ113. SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING E THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. WINDS TO GALE FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING IN EITHER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OR IN THE W TO NW FLOW THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THESE WARMER WATERS AT A MINIMUM. THE STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AS THE OVERALL FRONT WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TODAY...FROM 31N65W TO 22N77W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BY LATE THU...THEN WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY INTO FRI. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI INTO SAT THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES N OF THE AREA. SIMILARLY FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GMZ019...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ113...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.