000
AGXX40 KNHC 260800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MODERATE LEVEL CONFIDENCE IN FIRST TWO DAYS DUE TO LOW PRES
MOVES...HIGHER CONFIDENCE DAY 3-5.

DEEPENING LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N94W WITH AN ESTIMATED MSLP
OF 1009 MB. THE LOW IS STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NE GULF IN
THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRES. WINDS TO GALE FORCE
ARE NOTED NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 6 AM. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MAINLY
20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WHOLE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TODAY...REACHING
GALE FORCE S OF 24N LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS
SOUTH OVER THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRES AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE SW GULF OFF
VERACRUZ. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR
TERM...WHICH FAVORS GFS GUIDANCE. THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRES...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS N OF THE AREA AND THE COOLER AIRMASS MODIFIES. GLOBAL
MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A BRIEF SURGE
OF NE WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE FRI INTO SAT AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES PASSES N OF THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN
 INTO THE FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST.

WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE LEE OF CUBA ARE UP TO 20 KT AS
NOTED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BUT IS
NOW LIFTING N AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF. REINFORCING COLDER AIR ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW PRES IS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG N FLOW
ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY
EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN
HONDURAS WITH STRONG N WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT LINGERING BETWEEN
THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO SAT.
ELSEWHERE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH STARTING TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES
N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. THE RIDGE STRENGTHEN AGAINST BY THU
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO INCREASE BY LATE THU AND
PERSIST THROUGH SAT...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT PERIOD EXCEPT WED DUE POSSIBLE GALES IN
AMZ111 AND AMZ113.

FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WILL VEER E TO SE AND
INCREASE THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT SREF OUTPUT INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
GALE FORCE N OF 30N STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 15 FT N OF 29N. THE FRONT
REACHES FROM 31N70W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE WED WITH
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING N OF THE FRONT. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE WINDS FRI INTO
SAT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES N OF THE AREA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...GALE WARNING INTO WED NIGHT. 
AMZ113...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. 
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE. 
AMZ119...NONE. 
AMZ121...NONE. 
AMZ123...NONE. 
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.