000 AGXX40 KNHC 250800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: NO CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN MODEL BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N88W THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 23N94W THEN SOUTH TO 19N93W IN THE SW GULF. GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED IN RECENT ASCAT AND BUOY ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. WHILE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS STARTING TO MODIFY OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS...A REINFORCEMENT IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 23N94W FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE WITH STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED. GIVEN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BEWTEEN THE PRES SYSTEMS AND THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS...VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OFF THE MEXICAN COASTS OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ BY SAT. GALES WERE PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED OVER A BROADER AREA BEYOND THE USUAL COASTAL LOCALES BETWEEN 90W AND 95W S OF 27N. OPERATIONAL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES MAINLY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FEW INDICATIONS OF SUSTAIN GALE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THIS IS A BORDERLINE GALE SITUATION UPCOMING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. UPPER DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS START TO DIMINISH WED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF A THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON. FRESH NE WINDS EXPECTED S OF CUBA AND ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND MON AS WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN THEN LIFTS N LATE MON. NORTHERLY SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH ATLC PASSAGES IN NE CARIBBEAN TODAY. SECOND AND MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WITH STRONG N-NW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY WED INTO THU...REACHING AS FAR AS COAST OF NICARAGUA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT PERIOD EXCEPT WED DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR GALES N OF 30N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT ARE ALLOWING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN THE ENTRANCE TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDENCE CHANNEL BETWEEN GREAT ABACO AND ELEUTHRA. A SHIP LATER CONFIRMED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE ENTRANCE TO THE CHANNEL. JUDGING FROM BUOY DATA...SEAS ARE LIKELY RUNNING 9 TO 14 FT IN THE OPEN ATLC WATERS N OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N...AND VEER E TO SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WED N AMZ111. GFS ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES A BETTER POTENTIAL AS DOES SREF. WILL KEEP GALE POSSIBLE WORDING. BEYOND THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WEEK. SEAS BUILD TO 8-10 FT MON AND TUE WITH LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL COVER WATERS E OF BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING TUE. GMZ013...GALE WARNING TUE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GMZ019...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE WARNING TUE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.