000
AGXX40 KNHC 241855
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN LOWER TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES
IN WRN GULF.

STRONG COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO 26N91W THEN
STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N94W. COLD FRONT REACH FROM STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 23N91W THEN STATIONARY TO 18N94 LATE TONIGHT. GALE
WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS BEHIND FRONT W OF 94W STILL AFFECTING COAST OF VERACRUZ
THROUGH LATER TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HENCE
HIGH CONFIDENCE...IN DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1012 MB OVER NW GULF
WATERS LATE MON AND MOVE THROUGH N CENTRAL GULF TUE. LOW PRES
IS SHORTLIVED AS IT MOVES INLAND BY WED. TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFER AMONG MODELS. SECOND COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF LOW PRES  
BRING STRONG N FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WITH WINDS AGAIN REACHING
GALE FORCE OVER WESTERN GULF TUE AND WED. STRONG NW FLOW FOLLOW
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS GULF THROUGH THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST.

GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN
THROUGH MON. FRESH NE WINDS EXPECTED S OF CUBA AND ACROSS YUCATAN
CHANNEL TONIGHT AND MON AS WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN
THEN LIFTS N LATE MON. NORTHERLY SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH ATLC
PASSAGES IN NE CARIBBEAN TODAY.

SECOND AND MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE
NIGHT OR WED WITH STRONG N-NW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY
WED INTO THU...REACHING AS FAR AS COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY TUE THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU 
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODELS HANDLING GALES E OF FLORIDA WED.

COLD FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 28N81W MOVE E AND REACH FROM 28N65W TO
STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY. NORTHERN PORTION OF FRONT
CONTINUES SE WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION STALLS ALONG 24N MON NIGHT
THEN MOVE BACK N AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECOND COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS REGION LATE WED AND THU.

SEAS BUILD TO 8-10 FT MON AND TUE WITH LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELL
COVER WATERS E OF BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED.
AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. 
AMZ115...NONE. 
AMZ117...NONE. 
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE. 
AMZ123...NONE. 
AMZ125...NONE. 
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.