000
AGXX40 KNHC 231941
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN LOWER MON-WED DUE TO GALE UNCERTAINTY.

COLD FRONT BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LEADING EDGE FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N94W TO 23N98W. EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED
GALE FORCE S OF 26N W OF 94W AHEAD OF FORECAST TIME. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS NOT INITIALIZED ON THESE WINDS ALTHOUGH
REMAINDER OF WIND FIELD LOOKS ON TARGET. GALE WARNING ISSUED WITH
SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...END BY 12Z SUN. FRONT EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM SW FLORIDA 25N94W TO 18N95W EARLY SUN AND OUT OF GULF
LATE SUN...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE MON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENT IN FORMATION
OF LOW PRES OVER NW GULF WATERS THEN MOVE E-NE ACROSS NORTHERN
GULF INTO N...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE AND WED. 
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRES AND STRONG RIDGING OVER
PLAINS PUSH WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER WESTERN GULF BY TUE
THEN MOVE INLAND WED. STRONG NE FLOW SWEEP ACROSS GULF THROUGH
WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF BASIN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB FORCED EASTWARD BY COLD FRONT EASES
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN LEAVING GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE BREEZE
AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER ENTIRE BASIN. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ENTERS
NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON INCREASING NE FLOW TO A FRESH
BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BEFORE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE MON
NIGHT AND PREVIOUS CONDITIONS RETURN. SECOND AND MORE VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WITH STRONG
N-NW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 5 FOR SOUTHERLY
GALES OFF NE FLORIDA. 

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER OF BASIN FORCING HIGH PRES
CENTER 1020 MB EASTWARD AND FLATTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER SW N
ATLC. THIS IN TURN DIMINISHES AND VEERS WINDS E-SE THROUGHOUT
ENTIRE BASIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHIFT. NORTHERLY WIND
INCREASE SHARPLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN WAKE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
SEAS REACHING UP TO 13 FT N OF 27N W OF 73W BY MON. FRONT REACH
ALONG 23N BY TUE WITH ASSOCIATED MARINE CONDITIONS SPREADING ALONG
ITS BOUNDARIES.

FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS LATE TUE AND BECOME DIFFUSE.
WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED...BUT N-NE SWELL KEEP SEAS
TO 10 FT E OF BAHAMAS INTO WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.