000 AGXX40 KNHC 230757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SREF BLEND ADDED FOR WESTERN GULF. MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOWER THROUGH DAY 5 DUE TO GALE UNCERTAINTY. A SHALLOW BUT COLD AIRMASS IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NUMEROUS WIND BARBS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 26N. THIS IS RELATED TO THE CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY SHRINK THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES FARTHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DIMINISHES...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...BLENDING WITH GALES EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH NEAR TAMPICO LATER LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 25N95W TO 18N95W BY THIS EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ BEHIND THE FRONT BY EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE AND REACH FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE SUN...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE MON. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE BE CONSISTENT SHOWING A MID/UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MON...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE AND WED. AS A RESULT MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE MON...WHICH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF TUE AND THROUGH N FL/S GA WED. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW PRES AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO AGAIN REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LESS CERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NE GULF IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AS THEORIZED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR LATE TUE. THE STRONG NE FLOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT IN MOST AREAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG ATLC RIDGE...THE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODEST TRADES OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W WILL KEEP SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PENETRATE THE PASSAGES WITH SEAS TO 6 FT...AND COVER THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE ISLANDS WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT. NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT AND VEER SE BY TUE AFTER THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONGER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THE SECOND FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE INTO WED...FOLLOWED BY 20 TO 25 KT FLOW FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 5 FOR SOUTHERLY GALES OFF NE FLORIDA. A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM 22N65W TO THE UPPER KEYS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. WEAKENING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS SHIFTING E AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING...REACHING FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW FRONT...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 14 FT OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE MON AND BECOME DIFFUSE TUE. WINDS LARGELY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE...BUT N AND NE SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS TO 10 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS INTO WED. THE WINDS VEER E TO SE BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE AGAIN N OF THE BAHAMAS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF A LOW PRES AREA MOVING FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER AMZ111 AND AMZ113 TUE NIGHT...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR GALES REACHING 30 TO 40 PERCENT N OF 30N. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON MENTION OF GALE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.