000
AGXX40 KNHC 220757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
257 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE WESTERN GULF IN GMZ017 AND GMZ027
FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SAT...THEN LOWER THROUGH DAY 5 DUE TO GALE UNCERTAINTY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING S OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO COASTAL TEXAS WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS LATER TODAY...AND SWEEP
SE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT. THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE USUAL
AREAS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ BY LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON SREF
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WHICH IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING SUFFICIENT
PROBABILITIES FOR GALES. THE SREF MAINTAINS HIGH PROBABILITIES
THROUGH LATE SUN OFF VERACRUZ. ALL MAJOR MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THIS PREVAILING AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH NO MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE STARTING SUN AND LIMITS THE DURATION OF THE GALE...WITH
THE FRONT LARGELY STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO MON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF WITH A SHARP TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED THROUGH THE NE GULF BY WED. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET
SHOW A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON.
THIS WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...WITH A SURGE OF STRONG E TO SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WINDS
REACHING GALE FORCE AT THIS TIME NEXT WEEK...BUT IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE LOW GETS. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FLATTENED PRES PATTERN REMAINS OVER CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ALONG NORTHERN FRINGES
OF SW N ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NOTED
ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN. VIGOROUS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ENTERS NW
CARIBBEAN MON BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHEAR LINE FROM 26N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E
WINDS WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE NOTED N OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E BREEZES ARE NOTED S OF FRONT. WINDS N OF
SHEAR LINE DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS
THAN 8 FT LATE SAT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ENTERS NW AND N CENTRAL
WATERS EARLY SUN REACHING FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
SUN...THEN FROM 27N65W TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY MON. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS EXPECTED BEHIND SECOND FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.