000
AGXX40 KNHC 211941
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 PM EST THU NOV 21 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
...THEN BUMPED UP SMALL AREA IN GMZ017 AND GMZ027 FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOWER
THROUGH DAY 5 DUE TO GALE UNCERTAINTY.

BROAD HIGH PRES OVER ATLC SEABOARD BRINGS GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE 
WIND FIELD AND SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS ENTIRE GULF. VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NW GULF FRI NIGHT AND REACH FROM 30N84W TO 26N94W TO
19N95W SAT NIGHT THEN SE OF GULF BY MON. MAINLY FRESH TO NEAR
GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT...EXCEPT W CENTRAL AND
SW GULF ZONES WHERE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND 
POSSIBLE SUN. SECOND SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE MON
OR TUE MAY HELP DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG REMNANTS OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN NW GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FLATTENED PRES PATTERN REMAINS OVER CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS AS WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ALONG NORTHERN FRINGES OF
SW N ATLC. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NOTED ACROSS
ENTIRE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUN. VIGOROUS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN MON 
BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND FROM 27N65W TO 26N80W. FRESH TO STRONG
NE-E WINDS WITH 8-10 FT SEAS N OF FRONT WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE-E BREEZE NOTED S OF FRONT. FRONT PUSHES S TONIGHT THEN BECOME
DIFFUSE INTO REMNANT SHEAR LINE EARLY SAT. WINDS N OF FRONT DIMINISH
BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE SAT
NIGHT. SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS EARLY SUN
REACHING FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY SUN...THEN FROM 27N65W
TO SE BAHAMAS EARLY MON.  FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS
EXPECTED BEHIND SECOND FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.