000
AGXX40 KNHC 180727
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
227 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS.
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT REACHES THE GULF MON...BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
BUILD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS NO CHANCE OF A
STRONG BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT AT 19/00Z BUT HAS A 100 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BY 19/06Z. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. THE GEFS SHOWS ANY CHANCE OF A
STRONG BREEZE DIMINISHING BY 19/18Z. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRI. THE GFS AND ITS CORRESPONDING MWW3
SEEM TO BE AS REASONABLE AS ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS HERE. USED
THEIR SOLUTIONS TO ADJUST THE GRIDDED FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS.
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE NWPS THROWN IN FOR THE ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH FRI. A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC HAS DISRUPTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN
ARE GENERALLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT LOOK FOR LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL TO PROPAGATE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH WED. THE GFS
AND ITS MWW3 LOOK REASONABLE HERE.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
TRADE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN DISRUPTED HERE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRI. TO THE NE...THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS LOW MAY BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRONG GFS HAS THE BEST TRACK RECORD
WITH ITS FORECASTS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHT WESTERLY
JOG IN THE LOW TRACK AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...MORE LIKE THE CONSISTENT GFS FORECAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE DEEPEST SOLUTION WITH THE LOW THROUGH 20/00Z
BUT ONLY BY A MILLIBAR OR TWO. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD
THE GFS AND ITS MWW3 WHICH THE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD. THE GENERALLY HIGHER SEAS OF THE NWPS WERE ALSO ADDED TO
THE BLEND HERE. SEAS OVER 8 FT SHOULD REMAIN N OF 17N THROUGH
TUE...WITH A NEW SWELL TRAIN FROM A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA
PUSHING 8 FT SEAS FARTHER S BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND SUBSIDING OVER
SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS.
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST EARLY TUE THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NAVGEM. THE GEFS
SHOWS A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF A STRONG BREEZE IN NW WATERS BEHIND
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE PREFERENCE FOR THE GFS WITH THE LOW IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC...WILL BLEND IN THE GFS FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS
WIND FORECAST AND BLEND THE MWW3 WITH THE WAVE FORECAST. THE NWPS
HOLDS ONTO THE HIGHER SEAS LONGER THAN THE MWW3. PERHAPS TOO LONG.
THE NCEP/FNMOC ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE CHANCES OF SEAS OVER 8 FT
DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC BY FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.