000 AGXX40 KNHC 161959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE E GULF THROUGH SUN THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SW TO THE NE GULF. THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LIFTING NWD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG 28N88W 27N85W TO 26N83W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF REMAINS SUPPORTING E- SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF 88W N OF 26N...AND ALSO S OF 26N E OF 85W AS SEEN IN THE BUOY REPORTS...AND FROM A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1530 UTC THIS MORNING. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 8-9 FT S OF 26N E OF 85W AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 91W...AND 4-6 FT W OF 91W EXCEPT EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE SW PORTION. NWS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS LIFTING NWD ALONG AND N OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE ENE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS THERE DIMINISHING TO 15-205 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-8 FT. ON SUN THE WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT. THE PRESENT SE-S RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE S-SW INTO SUN EVENING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF ON MON MORNING...REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO FAR SRN TEXAS BY LATE MON NIGHT...FROM S FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE...AND TO JUST SE OF THE GULF AS A DISSIPATING FRONT WED. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON AND TUE AND SUBSIDE TO 4-5 WED AND THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: EVEN BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR WINDS...AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1400 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A SWATH OF E 20 KT WINDS OVER THE E PART OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE NE-E IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE CATEGORY WITH MOSTLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 5-6 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-79W. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE IN THE SW PART NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NE- E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE PRESENT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON...AND INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT/LOW SIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WHERE LARGE NW-N NLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THOSE WATER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUN...THEN BECOME MORE N-NE IN DIRECTION INTO WED AS ADDITIONAL SWELLS ENERGY IS PROPAGATED SWD FROM A CENTRAL ATLC DEVELOPING NON- TROPICAL LOW PRES SYSTEM. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: EVEN BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SHEAR LINE OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS FROM 22N65W TO EASTERN CUBA. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1358 UTC CLEARLY DENOTED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E MOSTLY 20 KT WINDS WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF 25 KT ACROSS THE NE ZONES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NE TO 31N79W SEPARATES N- NE 15 KT WINDS TO ITS W FROM E-SE 10-15 WINDS TO ITS E WHICH COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE HIGH...IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE IN N-NE SWELLS NE OF THE SHEAR LINE...AND 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE N OF AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE 4-5 FT W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BAHAMAS. THE SHEAR LINE WILL WEAKEN INTO SUN...WITH THE SEGMENT E OF THE BAHAMAS SAGGING SWD. S SEGMENT SHOULD REACH THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR 18N AS NE FLOW PRODUCED BY THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL ATLC LOW PRES SYSTEM NUDGES IT SWD. THE LOW WILL BE A SWELL GENERATOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL SEND LARGE N- NE SWELLS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN THROUGH MOST OF MON..BEFORE GRADUALLY DECAYING THROUGH WED AS BY THEN THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW (SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL) WILL HAVE LIFTED FAR ENOUGH TO THE N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS MON EVENING...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE ...FROM NEAR 31N72W TO 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE TUE...AND REACH FROM NEAR 29N65W TO 26N75W AND DISSIPATING TO VICINITY OF S FLORIDA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED AND BECOME STATIONARY INTO THU. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO THE GENERAL RANGE OF 8-10 FT BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.