000 AGXX40 KNHC 151957 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF EVEN BLEND OF WINDS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR WAVES...BLEND OF MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND HIGH CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS AN ILL- DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT FROM NW CUBA WNW TO 23N90W...AND SW TO NEAR 20N94W WHILE HIGH IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY AND THE RIDGE IS TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION ALLOWING FOR E-SE 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION AS NOTED IN THE BUOYS. THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY THE 1600 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE SE PART OF THE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS BUOY 42003 AT 26N86W IS INDICATING. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN THE NE PART...AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE FAR W PORTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE REPORTED SEA HEIGHT VALUES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ABUNDANT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE N CENTRAL WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS LEADING TO AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM MOVING QUICKLY NEWD OVER ZONE 15. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE ENE THROUGH LATE SUN AS THE ILL-DEFINED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NNE AS A WARM FRONT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE TO THE NE WILL KEEP E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT EVENING AND SUN. SEAS OVER THE SE AND NE PORTIONS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 FT BY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF SAT WITH THE OBSERVED MOISTURE DIMINISHING. SLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON MON MORNING. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO FAR SRN TEXAS BY LATE MON NIGHT...FROM S FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE...AND TO THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY WED. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON AND TUE AND SUBSIDE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1422 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE NE-E IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE CATEGORY. A SMALL POCKET OF FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NRN PART OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4- 5 FT...EXCEPT 7-9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-79W. WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON...AND INTO MON AS COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT/LOW SIDE THROUGH WED OVER MOST ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WHERE LARGE NW-N NLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THOSE WATER THROUGH LATE SAT...THEN BECOME MORE N-NE IN DIRECTION THROUGH WED AS ADDITIONAL SWELLS ENERGY IS PROPAGATED SWD FROM A CENTRAL ATLC LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WINDS. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FAR E AND SRN PORTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WELL OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS FROM 22N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ILL-DEFINED STATIOANRY FRONT WWD TO INLAND CENTRAL CUBA. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1418 UTC THIS MORNING VIVIDLY HIGHLIGHTED NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND E 20-25 KT WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY W OF THE BAHAMAS. N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NE ZONES...AND NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 28N W OF 69W. E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE NW PORTION. SEAS ARE HIGH...IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE...N OF THE BOUNDARY TO 27N AND E OF 70W. DATA FROM AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING MATCHED WELL WITH THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS N OF THE FRONT BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AS THE SEGMENT E OF THE BAHAMAS SAGS SWD THROUGH SUN. THIS SEGMENT SHOULD REACH THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR 17N OR 18N AS NE FLOW PRODUCED BY A CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEAR FUTURE LOW NUDGES THE DISSIPATING FRONT SWD. THIS SAME TROUGH AND LOW WILL SEND LARGE NE SWELLS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECAYING MON THROUGH WED AS BY THEN THE FUTURE LOW THAT DEVELOPS E OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIFTED FAR ENOUGH TO THE N. THE 20-30 KT WINDS N OF THE CURRENT BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SUN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR SE U.S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS MON EVENING...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N68W TO W CENTRAL CUBA WED. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE N-NE WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY TO 30 KT N OF 29N. SEAS BUILD TO 8-11 FT BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT DURING TUE AND INTO WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.