000 AGXX40 KNHC 141855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EST THU NOV 14 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND THROUGH DAY 3 COLD FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS...WITH CONVERGENT CLOUD BAND EVIDENT ACROSS YUCATAN PSG INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. I HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO CALL THIS BOUNDARY A SHEAR LINE AS HIGH PRES HAS BEEN BRIDGING ACROSS BOUNDARY SINCE YESTERDAY BUT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SHEAR LINE THROUGH BAHAMAS 24-48 HRS. RECENT 1440 ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOLID AREA OF ENE WINDS 25 KT THROUGH STRAITS WITH A FEW 30 KT VECTORS...AND MODEST AREA OF 25-30 KT W OF FRONT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE. KEEP IN MIND THAT ASCAT HAS A KNOWN LOW BIAS AS WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE SO WINDS WHERE DEFINITELY TO GALE IN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING AND 25-30 KT IN STRAITS. GULF BUOYS SHOWING SEAS WELL ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE 2-4 FT ACROSS NE AND E PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND A FEW FT W AND SW PORTIONS...WITH 42003 STILL AT 10 FT. HIGH N OF REGION TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH INVERTED TROFFING PERSISTING ALONG 91-92W...AND FRONTAL REMNANTS LIFTING N ACROSS E PORTIONS... WITH SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR NARROW ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS AS IT LIFTS N INTO NE PORTIONS FRI-SAT AND INTO NE GULF COASTS EARLY SUN. ATTENDANT MOISTURE TO SPREAD WX N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FL IN THE PROCESS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE NW GULF ON MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS FRESH TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS CONFINED TO 70-78W THIS MORNING...WHILE RECENT 1442Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG ENE FLOW IN LEE OF CUBA AND LIKELY STILL SPREADING ACROSS ENTRANCE TO YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW PORTIONS. BUOY 42056 STILL AT 10 FT ATTM AND NEAR WW3 GUIDANCE...WHILE AN 0840Z ALTIMETER PASS NNW-SSE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SHOWED SEAS 2-3 FT ABOVE WW3...WITH PEAK MEASUREMENT 14.5 FT IN FAR SE GULF NEAR 23.5N85.9W AND 11-13 IN THE CHANNEL. AS HIGH ACROSS SE U.S. CONTINUES TO SHIFT ENE NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS WILL VEER AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS NW PORTIONS BUT WITH FRESH ENE FLOW IN LEE OF CUBA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO MAINTAIN SEAS 6-9 FT NW PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH TO SHIFT NE OFF E COAST OF U.S. AND BRING RETURN OF MORE MODERATE ELY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN INTO SAT WITH FRESH FLOW TYPICAL S CENTRAL PORTIONS. REMNANTS OF OLD ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SW ACROSS NE CARIB ISLANDS SUN IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CARIB PASSAGES STARTING EARLY FRI AND INTO E CARIB THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN VEER MORE N TO NE INTO SUN...WITH PEAK SEAS AROUND 8 FT MONA PSG 00Z SAT PER WW3. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS 5-7 FT IN E-NE SWELL WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH FRI BEFORE SWELL FROM FRONT ENCROACHES ON N PORTIONS AND RAISES SEAS TO 6-8 FT N OF 18N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN A 0214Z ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT SHOWED SOLID AREA OF 30 KT NE WINDS IN LEE OF NW BAHAMAS TO ALONG SE COAST OF FL AND THROUGH STRAITS. GIVEN KNOWN LOW BIAS AND COASTAL OBS DURING THAT TIME FEEL THAT GALE WARNING WAS WARRANTED AND GFS SEEMS TO HAVE DONE VERY WELL WITH THIS EVENT. WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED PER RECENT ASCAT PASS ACROSS THIS AREA...NOW 20-25 KT AND HIGHER THROUGH STRAITS...WITH THIS VEERING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TREND TO CONTINUE NET 24-48 HOURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 21N AND NEARLY WASH OUT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...MID ATLC TROUGH TO AID IN STALLING FRONT ALONG 45W BY 72 HOURS WITH INVERTED LLVL TROFFING EXTENDING TO JUST E OF LEEWARDS. THIS TO ENHANCE NE FLOW INTO REGION AND PUSH FRONTAL REMNANTS INTO NE CARIB ISLANDS SUN...FOLLOWED BY NEW PULSE OF NE SWELL TO THE REGION SUN-MON. OTHERWISE...GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LIFTING FRONT ACROSS STRAITS AND ERN GULF TO YIELD NARROW ZONE OF 20 KT WINDS N OF BOUNDARY OCCURRING THROUGH N HALF OF BAHAMAS...S FL AND STRAITS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AND INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. MARINE CONDITIONS THUS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY CLEAN UP UNTIL SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.