000 AGXX40 KNHC 131909 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 209 PM EST WED NOV 13 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH 1041 MB HIGH PRES BEHIND IT BLASTING STRONG COLD AIR ACROSS THE GULF REGION AND FUNNELING S ALONG MEXICAN COAST TOWARDS WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WILL BLAST THROUGH CHIVELAS PASS TONIGHT FOR STORM FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PRESENTLY FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM S FL NEAR FLL TO CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23.5N90W ARCHING SW TO NEAR 19N96W. BUOY 42055 HAS DROPPED DP TO 66F OVER 81F SST AND APPEARS FRONT IS THROUGH THERE. 12Z SEA STATE ANAL SHOWED SEAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W GULF ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT 2-4 FT LOWER THAN WW3...AND 42055 NOW UP TO 17 FT AS OF 18Z. GALES IN SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF PERSISTENT TROFFING ACROSS CENTRAL BAY THROUGH 12S THU PER LATEST GFS...AND ACROSS SW CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 26N W OF 89W THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN FREQUENT GUSTS 35-40 FT. FRONT TO SINK THROUGH STRAITS AND ACROSS N YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN STALL ON THU BEFOREBEGINNING TO DRIFT NWD AS WARM FRONT LATE THU THROUGH SAT. GRADIENT N OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NARROW ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS NEAR 8 FT THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. PEAK WINDS ACROSS SW PORTIONS TO OCCUR DURING NEXT 6-9 HRS NEAR 40 KT ALONG MEXICAN COAST...WHILE MAX SEAS 18-20 FT POSSIBLE W OF FRONT IN SW BAY OF CAMPECHE OVERNIGHT...AS SUGGESTED BY ENSEMBLE MAX SWH FIELDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS BASIN EXCEPT FOR YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME NW PORTIONS ATTM AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE AND FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC. BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR BERMUDA TODAY AND IS WEAKENING AND BEING FORCED SE AHEAD OF FRONT. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED BROAD AREA OF 20 KT TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS BETWEEN 70W AND 77W S OF 16N...AND 20-25 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE SEAS AREA LIKELY 10 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS E OF 80W...WHILE HIGH PRES BRIDGING ACROSS FRONT WILL PRODUCE NE WINDS 20-25 KT IN LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS MUCH OF NW PART TONIGHT...POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT ACROSS WARM WATERS OF YUCATAN CURRENT...AND SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT...AND HIGHER IN CURRENT. WINDS TO VEER QUICKLY THERE THU TO E AND THEN E TO SE AND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT OR LESS BY FRI AS FRONT LIFTS N ACROSS SE GULF. NLY SWELL GENERATED ACROSS ATLC N OF FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES OF NE CARIB EARLY FRI THROUGH SUN TO RAISE SEAS IN AND THROUGH PASSAGES TO 6-7 FT. WW3 WAS LOW ABOUT 2 FT ON LAST SIMILAR ATLC FRONTAL EVENT ACROSS NE CARIB AND WOULD LEAN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WW3 ON THIS EVENT AS WELL. FRESH WINDS AND E-NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 7-9 FT IN TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU. WINDS TO DIMINISH FRI-SAT TO GENERALLY 10-15 KT THERE WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO NEAR BERMUDA WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SE THROUGH TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE W ATLC. THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66.5W TO FAR NW BAHAMAS AND FLL. GALES N OF THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ARE DRIVING A DYNAMIC FETCH SWD BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND GENERATING MIXED NLY SWELL A FEW FT IN EXCESS OF WW3...WITH BUOY 41009 NOW SHOWING PEAK PERIOD OF 12 SECS. THIS WILL CREATE CLASSIC WAVE AGAINST CURRENT SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS GULF STREAM E OF FL FOR GREATLY ENHANCED WAVE HEIGHTS BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE NELY LATE AND PULSE OF N SWELL ENDS DURING DAY THU. WFO MIA WAVE VS GULFSTREAM NOMOGRAM THUS SUGGESTS 15-18 FT SEAS WITHIN STREAM TONIGHT. BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED ACROSS NW PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY N OF 27N AND W OF 70W WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WARRANTING GALE WARNING. AFTER MUCH DEBATE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE GALE FOR NW AND NW CENTRAL BAHAMAS WATERS AND ADJACENT ATLC FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING FOR FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS BEHIND FRONT...SPREADING ACROSS GULF STREAM AND INTO E PORTIONS OF STRAITS. WX UNDERGROUND STATION ON ELBOW CAY ALREADY REPORTING GUSTS TO 34 MPH. FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY SE NEXT 48 HOURS AND STALL ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS FROM 24.5N60W TO NW COAST OF CUBA BY 12Z FRI THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND DRIFT SSW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE GULF OF MEXICO PORTION DRIFTS N ACROSS SE AND CENTRAL GULF. MODELS INDICATING FRESH FLOW IN NARROW BAND ALONG N SIDE OF BOUNDARY SAT AND WILL PROLONG EXPECTED GREATLYIMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS BAHAMAS WATERS UNTIL SUN. FRONTAL REMNANTS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NE CARIB ISLANDS IN BACK DOOR FASHION OVER THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ019...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO THU NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ113...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ115...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AMZ117...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING THU. AMZ119...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.