000 AGXX40 KNHC 121856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 156 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS OLD FRONTAL ZONE PERSISTS ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN FROM FL KEYS TO SW GULF AND HAS NOT BEEN ANALYZED ON SFC MAP FOR DAYS... ALTHOUGH AMPLE WEATHER CONTINUES TO IGNITE ALONG IT. PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF THIS ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY AND HIGH PRES BRIDGING ACROSS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING SE TEXAS INDUCING FRESH NNE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF NW PORTIONS OF GULF EXTENDING S TO OLD FRONTAL ZONE. BUOY 42020 HAS RISEN TO 8 FT PAST HOUR AND NOW42002 AT 7 FT. MAX SEAS TO 9 FT LIKELY OCCURRING JUST TO SW OF 42002. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1047 HIGH BEHIND IT BLASTING STRONG COLD AIR ACROSS AND BEHIND IT...WITH GALES BEGINNING 21-00Z THIS EVENING ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND W/NW OFFSHORE WATERS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO USE FREQUENT GUST CRITERIA AND HAVE OUTLINED GALE AREA WITH 40 KT WIND GUST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS. GALES TO SPREAD S AND SW ALONG MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT AND THEN REMAINED CONFINED TO SW QUARTER ON WED...THEN ACROSS W PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AS FRONT STALLED NEAR E TO W ACROSSSTRAITS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. WE MAINTAIN GALES THERE THROUGH 00Z FRI. HAVE BLENDED LATEST NWPS OUTPUT FROM 06Z RUN WITH LATEST WW3 YIELDING PEAK SEAS 15-17 FT ACROSS SW PORTIONS BY 48 HRS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS FRONT APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO NUDGING HIGH ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC TOWARDS THE NE AND WILL WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN SOMEWHAT NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE FRONT BLASTS OFF SE U.S. COAST WITH 1040+ MB HIGH BEHIND IT BUILDING INTO THE W ATLC. GFS FORECASTING TRADES TO REACH NOCTURNAL PEAK OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT NEAR 30 KT BUT OTHERWISE...ELY TRADES 20-25 KT TO PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS S OF 17N AND E OF 80W TONIGHT THEN PEAK GRADIENT SHIFTS W INTO CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONT PROPER NOT FORECAST TO REACH CARIB BUT HANG UP ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT WED NIGHT ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND LEE OF CUBA BUILDING SEAS THERE 6-8 FT EXCEPT TO 10 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH WINDS AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 8-9 FT IN TROPICAL N ATLC INTO WED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN. W CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BROKEN ACROSS AREA AS REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM FL KEYS NE TO S OF BERMUDA. RESIDUAL NE SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT SE PORTIONS TODAY AND WILL FADE AND BE OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BEHIND COLD FRONT NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF MEXICO FRONT TO BLAST OFF SE U.S. AND N FL 00-06Z TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST GALES N OF 30N IN FREQUENT GUSTS BY 00Z. MODELS FORECAST FRONT TO REACH FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 27.5N BY 12Z WED AND THEN QUICKLY SE FROM 26N65W THROUGH STRAITS BY 12Z THU THEN STALL ALONG NW COAST OF CUBA AND STRAITS LATE THU AND BEGIN TO DRIFT NWD ACROSS GULF FRI. HAVE ISSUED GALES FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KT BEHIND FRONT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NEAR 00Z THU ACROSS NW PORTIONS BUT DID NOT EXTEND GALES INTO NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS...ALTHOUGH GFS INDICATING SOLID AREA OF 30 KT THERE...AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO THAT REGION OF WARM WATERS. HAVE BLENDED 06Z NWPS WITH LATEST WW3 TO YIELD 12-14 FT SEAS JUST BEHIND FRONT BY 48 HRS...AND LIKELY NOT DEPICTED HIGHEST SEAS IN GULF STREAM CREATED FROM WAVE AGAINST CURRENT WED. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SE IN NW WATERS AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GMZ013...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT. GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ019...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ113...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.