000 AGXX40 KNHC 111940 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SW GULF AND CLOSE TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THE 1544 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 25 KT N-NW WINDS S OF S OF 21N W OF 25W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND WEST WATERS TUE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE SW GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH WED NIGHT IN GMZ023. THE 12Z GEFS ONLY SHOWS UP TO A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES CONFINED TO ZONE GMZ023...BUT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION 03Z SREF SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN ZONE GMZ017 WED. PREFER TO HAVE A GALE WARNING HERE WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND IS LIKELY. NEITHER ENSEMBLE SHOWS A CHANCE OF GALES IN THE EAST BAY OF CAMPECHE ZONE GMZ025. THE FORECAST WAS CHANGED TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES E TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH STRONG WINDS LINGERING IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY FRI...THE MODELS AGREE ON TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW GULF AS HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS FARTHER E INTO THE ATLC BUT DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS. THE 12Z GFS HOLDS ONTO A RIBBON OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ALONG 26N AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE TROUGH WHICH SUPPORTS STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1404Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GFS DOES A BETTER JOB DEPICTING THE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION SEEM PRUDENT HERE AS WELL AS WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED INTO THU. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED AND THU. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THU AND WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRES TO THE N DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC. FRESH WINDS AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 8-9 FT IN TROPICAL N ATLC INTO WED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. CURRENTLY...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SEEN PIN THE 1400 AND1540 UTC ASCAT PASSES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF MIAMI AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NW DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N67W TO 26N69W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL IT MOVES SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED...AND LIE FROM NEAR 25N65W TO EASTERN CUBA THU BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 24N FRI. THE 12Z GEFS ONLY SHOWS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN NW WATERS IN ZONE AMZ111 EARLY WED. THE 03Z SREF IS SLIGHTLY MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT GALES HERE AS WELL AS IN ZONE AMZ113 ON WED. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS LIMIT THE WINDS TO 30 KT IN AMZ113...BUT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT. CONSIDERING THE CRITERIA FOR GALES INCLUDES FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING HERE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THIS AREA. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE AIR/SEA TEMPERATURE CONTRAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE WINDS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY IN NW WATERS AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.