000 AGXX40 KNHC 110743 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE THROUGH THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SW GULF AND CLOSE TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH TUE EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCING BY STRONGER HIGH PRES ON TUE PUSHING THE FRONT TO A POSITION FROM THE NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO NE MEXICO TUE EVENING...AND OVER THE SE GULF AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE SW GULF. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 TUE NIGH INTO WED AND FOR ZONE GMZ-025 WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY... THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND TO 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE SW GULF WHILE THE GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 30-40 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES BETWEEN TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES E TO THE CAROLINAS...WITH STRONG WINDS LINGERING IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 10 FT PER SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED INTO THU FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 60W S OF 16N. FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY THU AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY DISSIPATES. CURRENTLY...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA...WITH SEAS UNDER 8 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN MOVE SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED...AND LIE FROM NEAR 25N65W TO EASTERN CUBA LATE THU BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 24N FRI. THE GEFS SHOWS NOW A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE OF GALES DIMINISHING BY WED NIGHT. THE SREF HAS SIMILAR PROBABILITIES ACROSS ZONE AMZ111. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING BY THU. DECIDE TO MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ115 ON WED. SEAS IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT WED INTO THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.