000 AGXX40 KNHC 101932 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 232 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE THROUGH THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SW GULF. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES IN THE FORECAST BY TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT OOZES INTO THE GULF AND BRINGS STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS TO WESTERN WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 12 UTC GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON THE GALE INITIATING TUE NIGHT WHEN SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS RISE ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 40 PERCENT. THE 12 UTC ECMWF SHOWS A DELAYED ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS AS STATED IN THE SW N ATLC SECTION BELOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE GFS BECAUSE OF THIS. THE GALE SHOULD BEGIN OFF THE COAST NEAR TAMPICO AND QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO SW WATERS WED...WITH THE GEFS SHOWING NO CHANCE OF GALES BY THU MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN GULF THU AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS E ONTO THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH STRONG WINDS LINGERING IN THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER THE 12 UTC OBSERVATION FROM SHIP CCES AND THE 15 UTC OBSERVATION FROM SHIP MHMZ8. AN 1130 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWS SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/MWW3 SOLUTIONS...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET THE WEAKEST AND THE NAVGEM THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION IS ALSO PREFERRED WITH THE PATTERN N OF THE AREA TUE-THU AS EXPLAINEDIN THE SW N ATLC SECTION BELOW. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GFS WIND SOLUTION WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THU. THIS RESULTS IN AN EXPANDED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE MWW3 S OF 20N WHERE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM HIGHER SEAS CLOSER TO THE MWW3 SOLUTION. THESE 8-9 FT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK WESTWARD. THE GFS/MWW3 SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN AND LOOKS GOOD HERE AS WELL...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES DIMINISHING A NOTCH BY THU AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLC FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING...SO ITS 12Z SOLUTION IS FAVORED AMONG THE LATEST RUNS. THE GEFS SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND NOW RAPIDLY DIMINISHES THE CHANCE OF GALES BY WED NIGHT. THE 03 UTC SREF HAS SIMILAR PROBABILITIES. MEANWHILE...THE 12 UTC GFS MAINTAINS A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS OVER N WATERS WELL INTO WED NIGHT WITH THE 12 UTC UKMET JUST SLIGHTLY LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. GIVEN THE CRITERIA ALLOWS FOR WARNINGS FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS...THINK THE GALE WARNING SHOULD REMAIN UP IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO WED NIGHT...DESPITE THE DECREASING PROBABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AT OR ABOVE 34 KT. SEAS IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT WED INTO THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.