000 AGXX40 KNHC 091815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM DAYS 3-5. AT 09/18 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS THROUGH 23N90W TO 18N93W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED W OF THE FRONT WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE NE-E WINDS... EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH...LOCALLY STRONG...S OF 22N W OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING WITH MAINLY 3-6 FT...EXCEPT 6-8 FT S OF 22N W OF THE FRONT. LIMITED CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E FLOW AND 3-6 FT SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ DUE TO A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF TUE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED S OF 22N WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THU EVENING...FROM NEAR 29N83W TO 22N90W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...PUSHING SSE OF THE AREA LATE WED. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING WINDS UP TO 40 KT ALTHOUGH THE LATEST DATA SHOWS 35 KT AND OVER A SMALLER AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR GMZ023-025 LATE TUE INTO WED...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WITH A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN THE TRADES ARE EXPERIENCING AN UPWARD TREND WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH BASINWIDE...AND SEAS AT 3-6 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W IS HELPING TO SPUR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 75W. NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SEEP THROUGH THE ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES E OF 70W...BUT THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...TRADES WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH WED. EXPECT THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 20N ALONG 58W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 10N TO 15N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES WWD ACROSS THIS AREA...EXPECT CONTINUED WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING LATE SUN INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM DAYS 3-5. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 27N70W...THEN STATIONARY TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT N OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS...LOCALLY STRONG IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ...AND 1-3 FT SEAS EXCEPT 3-6 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY MON. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE SUN THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MON WITH LITTLE IMPACT ANTICIPATED S OF 31N. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN AMZ111-113 LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N70W TO 27N81W WED EVENING...THEN FROM 31N68W AND S FLORIDA EARLY THU WITH LOW PRES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF AMZ111-113...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WITH PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING WINDS TO 40 KT AND GALE CONDITIONS TO 27N...AND THE LATEST DATA SHOWING BARELY 35 KT S OF 31N. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AMZ111-113 ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE CONDITIONS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.