000 AGXX40 KNHC 090747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. AT 09/06 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS NW TO N WINDS OF 25-30 KT S OF 21N W OF 95W. IN ADDITION...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT AND W OF 92W WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATE TUE THROUGH WED. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT...PARTICULARLY FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. A VERY STRONG HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FRONT...AND THE ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITY IS 40-50 % AT THIS TIME. SO...DECIDE TO INCLUDE GALE CONDITIONS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FROM WED AT 06Z TO THU AT 06Z. THESE GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT ZONES GMZ023 AND GMZ025. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WITH A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN... THE TRADES HAVE FINALLY RETURNED TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WWD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SEEP THROUGH THE ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES E OF 70W...BUT THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...TRADES WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH WED. EXPECT THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH A FEW WIND BARBS OF 30 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES WWD ACROSS THIS AREA...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 7-10 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT PER THE LATEST ALTIMETER PASS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND STALL FROM 26N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BY SUN WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED NIGHT. THESE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113 ON WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND WED NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.