000 AGXX40 KNHC 081739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1239 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 08/18 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF NEAR 26N86W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY WHILE CONTINUING WSW THROUGH 22N94W TO 18N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 22N WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 16 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 7-10 FT SEAS. LIMITED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE PORTION IN THE SW GULF...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ENDING AROUND 06 UTC TONIGHT (EXTENDED FROM 00 UTC BASED ON SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES). HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE TUE INTO WED...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF BY LATE WED INTO THU. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER AT LEAST MINIMAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED JUST BELOW GALE FOR NOW UNTIL MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS SHOWN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD PRES PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE BASIN WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN/GULF OF HONDURAS...A SURFACE TROUGH JUST N OF CENTRAL CUBA...AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHS JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. AS A RESULT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL...EXCEPT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ARE PRESENT WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT. NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO SEEP THROUGH THE ATLC/CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...ALTHOUGH THIS SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A FRONT THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF THE AREA WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS TRADES WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N72W TO 27N81W WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ABOUT 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS ARE ALREADY ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N60W TO 28N70W TO 26N80W BY SAT MORNING...THEN WILL STALL AS IT EXTENDS FROM 28N60W TO 25N71W TO 25N80W BY SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE BASIN BY SUN...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH JUST N OF THE DECAYING FRONT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT BASIN-WIDE EXCEPT LOCALLY TO 8 FT JUST N OF THE FRONT. BY MON...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH TUE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS MON AND TUE. BY LATE TUE INTO WED...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS 30-40 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THUS WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 30 KT FOR NOW. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.