000 AGXX40 KNHC 071959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-PERSISTENCE BLEND LATEST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APPALACHICOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 25.5N90W TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. WINDS AT MOST OF THE GULF PLATFORMS AND NOAA BUOYS N OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS REPORTED AS HIGH AS 10 FT AT NOAA BUOY 42020. A 1524 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED SOME OF THE WINDS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. THESE WINDS WERE GENERALLY 20-25 KT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUD MOTIONS MORE OUT OF THE NNE VERSUS DUE NORTHERLY SUGGESTING THAT THE GALE EVENT NOW UNFOLDING IS MORE MARGINAL THAN FORECAST. WILL AWAIT SUBSEQUENT OSCAT PASSES AND OBSERVATIONS NEAR VERACRUZ BEFORE THE FINAL DETERMINATION. IN ANY EVENT THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AND STALL FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS/UPPER KEYS TO NEAR 23N90W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z SUN. GALES BELIEVED TO HAVE COMMENCED ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND FORECAST TO SPREAD S OF CABO ROJO AND INTO FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH GALES ENDING N OF CABO ROJO BY 06Z TONIGHT AND ENDING ACROSS SW PORTIONS BY 00Z SAT. SREF PROBS AROUND 45-50% AT 18Z TODAY OFF CENTRAL MEXICO INCREASE TO 80% BY 06Z FRI OVER FAR SW GULF AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SAT. PEAK SEAS EXPECTED 13-14 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI IN LINE WITH THE MWW3. LOOKING AHEAD INTO MON AND TUE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL YIELD TO INCREASING NLY FLOW WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE WRN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WEAKENING HIGH PRES ACROSS NW ATLC LEADING TO MARKED DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR NW CARIB. A 1526 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT. OTHERWISE...VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIB W OF 73W WITH MORE MODERATE TRADES SPREADING W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. LARGE NNE SWELL HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF SW N ATLC WATERS AND CURRENTLY HITTING ATLC COASTS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS AND MOVING THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES...AND EVENTUALLY SEEP INTO NE CARIB WATERS NEXT 48 HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TRADES EXPECTED E OF 75W TODAY THROUGH FRI THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFT E INTO NW ATLC. LATE SEASON LOW LATITUDE ELY WAVE ALONG 43W/44W WILL REACH ABOUT 58W BY 72 HRS AND BRING SOME WEATHER WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO LESSER ANTILLES SAT-SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-PERSISTENCE BLEND SHEAR LINE EXTENDS WSW FROM 28N55W TO NEAR 26N68W. A 1344 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THIS SHEAR LINE QUITE WELL WITH NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF THE SHEAR LINE AND LIGHT E TO SE WINDS S OF THE SHEAR LINE. LINGERING NE SWELL FROM GALES EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS THROUGH SUN. THE AREA OF 20 KT ENE WINDS N OF THE SHEAR LINE WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND FURTHER ON FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RETREAT AND GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH BASIN...EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA ALMOST TO JAX BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN OFF THE FL COAST TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR PALM BEACH WSW INTO SE GULF BY 00Z SAT THEN DRIFTING S TO EXTREME S FL BY 00Z SUN. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE N TO NE WINDS 20-30 KT EARLY FRI THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN BECOME NE 20-25 KT AS FRONT SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF NW PART THROUGH FRI EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY SAT EVENING AND NIGHT AS HIGH BEHIND FRONT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SFC TROUGH OR BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC WATERS LATE MON AND TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 FT. MWW3 CONTINUES TO UNDERFORECAST NNE SWELL GENERATED BEHIND RECENT FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND SE WATERS. 1030 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS ABOUT 2 FT ABOVE SHORT TERM FCST OF THE MWW3 NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRI. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.