000
AGXX40 KNHC 061847
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
147 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...  

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SW INTO N GULF. 
PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF SE 
GULF. 1550Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED AREA OF 25 KT WINDS S OF 26N E OF 
86W WITH SEA HEIGHTS BASED ON SHIP OBS TO 10 FT. MODERATE RETURN 
FLOW PREVAILS IN NW GULF AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO 
PLUNGE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT. EXPECT SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS 
AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG NLY 
FLOW WITH GALES ALONG CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST TO 35-40 KT 18Z THU 
THROUGH 00Z FRI THEN SPREADING S INTO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 
ENDING BY 18Z-00Z SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 14 FT BEHIND FRONT BY 12Z 
FRI PER WW3. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM MOBILE AL TO TAMPICO 
MEX THU...FROM S FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI...AND FROM 
FLORIDA STRAITS TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT...THEN STALL AND BEGIN 
TO WASH OUT THROUGH SUN. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN MUCH FASTER AND 
STRONGER WITH FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA PENINSULA SO USED BLEND WITH 
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A COMPROMISE POSITION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. GOOD 
CONFIDENCE.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT WNW INTO 
WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CARIBBEAN YIELDING 
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS. HOWEVER...IN TROP N 
ATLC REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT BUT MODERATE-LARGE 
N-NE SWELL WILL REACH N OF 17N...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. GENTLE 
TO MODERATE E TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN E OF 75W THU AND FRI 
THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFT E INTO NW ATLC.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STATIONARY FRONT SNAKES ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL ATLC 
AND BECOMES ILL-DEFINED NEAR 26N68W. 25 KT NE WINDS CONTINUING 
WITHIN 200 NM N OF FRONT WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH W OF 
70W AND INTO FLORIDA WATERS. 2330Z JASON2 PASS SHOWED SEAS 8-12 
FT BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND SE FL...WITH PEAK INDICATED IN PASS OF 12 
FT IN THE GULF STREAM. TROUGH ALONG 69W WILL SHIFT W NEXT FEW 
DAYS THROUGH BAHAMAS AND COME SOMEWHAT IN PHASE WITH A COASTAL 
TROUGH ALONG SE U.S. COAST DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT 
WILL SWEEP ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO THU-SAT. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE OFF GA AND NE FL COAST THU EVENING AND BECOME ORIENTED ENE-
WSW FRI AND SAT FROM 30N73W TO S FLORIDA FRI...THEN FROM 28N65W 
TO FLORIDA STRAITS SAT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
SUN. STRONG N-NE WINDS INITIALLY BEHIND FRONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT 
WILL TRANSITION TO NARROW BAND OF 20-25 KT ENE WINDS WITHIN 120 
NM N OF FRONT SAT. LIGHT VARYING WINDS WILL PREVAIL SE OF THIS 
APPROACHING FRONT AS BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS FROM N OF PUERTO 
RICO NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC. NE SWELL GENERATED N OF AREA WILL 
REACH SE PORTION TONIGHT AND ATLC COASTS OF CARIB ISLANDS THU. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING THU AND THU NIGHT. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE. 
GMZ023...GALE WARNING THU NIGHT AND FRI. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO FRI NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.