000 AGXX40 KNHC 060821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 321 AM EST WED NOV 6 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS SW INTO NE PORTIONS OF BASIN AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. 0232Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOLID AREA OF ENE WINDS 25 KT ACROSS NE PORTIONS AND 25-30 KT ACROSS SE PORTIONS IN LEE OF STRAITS. A 2330Z JASON2 PASS ALONG 80.5W SHOWED SEAS STILL 9-10 FT THERE AND NOT SAMPLING HIGHER WAVES AGAINST CURRENT FARTHER W. BUOY 42039 STILL REPORTING 10 FT WHICH IS 2-3 FT LOW OF BOTH ECWAVE AND WW3. MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS IN NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH BROAD TROFFING BEING CARVED OUT NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS BY TUTT LOW CURRENTLY SHIFTING W THERE. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG NLY FLOW WITH MODERATE GALES ALONG CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST TO 40 KT 18Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI THEN SPREADING S INTO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ENDING BY 00Z SAT. SEAS TO BUILD 9-14 FT BEHIND FRONT IN THIS NLY FLOW BY 12Z FRI PER WW3. BROAD INVERTED TROFFING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN WILL FORCE FRONT TO WRAP AROUND IT AND NOT BLAST SE THROUGH BASIN...WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE BIG BEND REGION TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94.5W BY 00Z FRI AND FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 24.5N96W TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z SAT...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO WASH OUT THERE THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING W ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS PAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY FILLED AND NOW A TROUGH AND WILL GRADUALLY MERGE INTO WEAK BROAD TROUGH FROM W PORTIONS ALONG ABOUT 16N TOWARD THE NW AND INTO WRN GULF OF MEXICO. MOIST SE LLVL FLOW CONTINUES TO YIELD ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO CENTRAL CUBA...BUT ENE WINDS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN LEE OF CENTRAL AND ERN CUBA GENERATING SEAS 5-6 FT. ELSEWHERE...WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN E OF 75W THU AND FRI THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFT E INTO NW ATLC. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO AROUND 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL N OF 17N BY THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN. FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND SNAKES ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC FROM NEAR 31N51W TO 27N67W WHERE IT IS NOW ILL DEFINED. LOW LINGERING ALONG 65-66W PAST DAYS HAS WEAKENED TO TROUGH NOW ALONG 67W AND WILL SHIFT WSW NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH BAHAMAS AND COME SOMEWHAT IN PHASE WITH COASTAL TROUGH ALONG SE U.S. COAST DEVELOPING AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO FRONT. NE WINDS 25-30 KT CURRENTLY CONTINUING WITHIN 180 NM NW OF FRONT E OF 70W...AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE...AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH W OF 75W AND INTO FLORIDA WATERS. 2330Z JASON2 PASS SHOWED SEAS 8-12 FT BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND SE FL...WITH PEAK INDICATED IN PASS OF 12 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ENE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADIENT BEHIND WEAKENING FRONT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND WINDS VEER ELY BY TONIGHT. GFS FORECASTS GULFMEX FRONT TO MOVE OFF GA-SC AND EXTREME NE FL COASTS THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO LAY DOWN ENE TO WSW FRI AND SAT...REACHING FROM 27N70W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT WILL INITIALLY BLAST BEHIND FRONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT BEFORE WIND FIELD WEAKENS WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF 20-25 KT ENE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT ON SAT. FRONT TO BECOME ILL DEFINED ON SUN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT N PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS TO PREVAIL S AND SE OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT AS BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC. NNE SWELL CURRENTLY BEING GENERATED N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS TONIGHT AND REACH ATLC COASTS OF CARIB ISLANDS THU MORNING...PEAKING AT AROUND 5 FT PER WW3. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.