000
AGXX40 KNHC 051905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...  

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF.
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT MAINLY N
OF 24N E OF 90W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT BASED ON BUOY AND FEW SHIP
OBSERVATIONS. SE RETURN FLOW PICKS UP IN THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE GULF REGION TONIGHT AND WED
BUT AGAIN EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE
NEXT FRONT. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG TO GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 10-13 FT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF
CAMPECHE THU...AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
FRI. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS OFFSHORE
MEXICAN WATERS IN THE SW GULF BEHIND FRONT THU EVENING AND INTO W
BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. A GALE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR ZONES GMZ017
AND GMZ023.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N77.5W DRIFTING W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP NEAR
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL
DEFINED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SATELLITE PICTURE. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WWD REACHING 82W IN 72 HOURS PER THE
MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION.

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER EASTERN CUBA GENERATING SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG NELY FLOW IS NOTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND MODERATE
TO FRESH NELY WINDS ARE NOTED IN LEE OF CUBA...RAISING SEAS TO
AROUND 6 FT N OF 20N. ELSEWHERE...WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY
UNDER 4 FT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY THU AND BRING A
RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY TRADES TO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W
THU AND FRI THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFT E
INTO NW ATLC.

MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL N OF 17N BY THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FRONT A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
PRES LOCATED NEAR 25N65.5W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE AREA
OF NE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. AN
ALTIMETER PASS ALONG WITH BUOY 41047 INDICATES SEAS OF UP TO 14
FT. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF AREA
NW OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES AND INTO NW ATLC. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND VEER MORE EASTERLY LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE
HIGH PRES SHIFTS E TO N CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER NE SWELL IN EXCESS
OF 8 FT IN WILL LINGER OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST ON THU...
AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRI. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 10-11 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO THU NIGHT. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.