000 AGXX40 KNHC 050814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN U.S. HAS INCREASED THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS PAST 24 HOURS WITH LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATING 25 KT FLOW SPREADING W AND NW TO MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI. BUOY 42039 NOW AT 10 FT AND 42036 AT 9. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF FLORIDA PENINSULA FORECAST TO PEAK THIS MORNING BEFORE HIGH TO THE NNE BEGINS TO SHIFT NE TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONGEST FLOW TONIGHT 20-25 WITH SMALL AREAS TO 30 KT LIKELY OCCURRING IN FAR NE GULF AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FL WITH WIND AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT PRODUCING SEA IN EXCESS OF MODEL FORECASTS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY ABATE TONIGHT AND THEN MORE QUICKLY WED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH SE TEXAS COAST AND NW ATLC HIGH SHIFTS E TO 55W. E WINDS REMAIN 20 KT THROUGH STRAITS WED AND THEN FALL OFF WED NIGHT AS COLD FRONT ENTERS NW GULF. 1030 MB HIGH BEHIND THIS NEW FRONT WILL DRIVE NLY WINDS S DOWN TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS WITH MODELS INDICATING GALES AS EARLY AS 15Z THU PER SREF...SPREADING S TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI EVENING THROUGH 12Z FRI. SEAS BUILD 10-13 FT BEHIND FRONT DURING THIS TIME. LINGERING BROAD TROUGH NW TO SE ACROSS W CENTRAL GULF TO KEEP FRONT WRAPPED AROUND PERIPHERY OF TROUGH AND WILL SINK SE ACROSS N AND NE PORTIONS...MAKING IT ALMOST TO TAMPA BAY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N76.5W DRIFTING W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 13N71W. ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS ATLC HAS BEGUN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WITH FRESH NELY FLOW ACCELERATING IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT N OF 20N THERE. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS LIGHT AND SLIGHT WITH MOIST SE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS NE CARIB AND HISPANIOLA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS ATLC TO LAY DOWN MORE ENE TO WSW AND DISSIPATE BY THU AND BRING A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY TRADES TO CARIB E OF 75W THU AND FRI THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SHIFT E INTO NW ATLC. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO AROUND 7 FT IN N TO NE SWELL N OF 17N LATE THU INTO FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN LOW PRES PERSISTING ACROSS ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMPLICATING ANALYSIS OF FRONT...BUT APPEARS THAT FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE W AND NW OF LOW THEN CONTINUES SW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO CENTRAL CUBA. RECENT SCAT PASSES DEPICTING LARGE AREA OF ENE TO NE WINDS 25 KT ACROSS ATLC BEHIND FRONT GENERALLY W OF 72W...WITH SMALL POCKETS TO 30 KT. COASTAL OBS ALONG FL COAST OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN HOVERING 25 TO NEAR 30 KT WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS SUGGESTING SEAS 10-14 FT...A FEW FT ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE. NE WINDS TO PEAK THIS MORNING...THEN STRONGEST FLOW EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NW OF FRONT FROM 30N THROUGH THE STRAITS...PRODUCING A BROAD AND LONG FETCH. WINDS TO THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND THEN MORE QUICKLYWED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE FETCH WILL HAVE GENERATED SWELL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NW WATERS AND FL COAST THROUGH FRI...WHEN GULF OF MEXICO FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SE OFF OF SE U.S. COAST AND SINK MORE SSE THROUGH SAT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR PRIOR TO THIS THU AND FRI ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC 50-60W WITH LINGERING INVERTED TROUGHING...AND HAVE GONE WITH GEFS MEAN WHICH IS SIMILARTO GFS. NLY SWELL BEHIND FRONT TO MOVE INTO SE WATERS LATE WED THROUGH EARLY THU AND RAISE SEAS 6-8 FT THU BEFORE SLOWLY FADING FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.