000 AGXX40 KNHC 040820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS NW CARIB THIS MORNING...WHILE SFC HIGH HAS SHIFTED NE ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND WINDS HAVE VEERED ELY ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 27N...TURNING SE ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. 0220 ASCAT PASS CAPTURED NELY WINDS ACCELERATING WHILE EXITING W COAST OF FL WITH WINDS SOLID 25 KT ALONG MOST OF COAST S OF CEDAR KEY AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT OUT TO AROUND 85W. FLOW TO VEER TO ELY ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN TODAY THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT ACROSS NE QUARTER TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING THERE 8-9 FT POSSIBLY TO 10...WHILE ENE FLOW AROUND 25 KT WILL SCREAM THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND DIRECTLY AGAINST FLORIDA CURRENT FOR NARROW RIBBON OF 8-10 FT WITH HIGHER WAVES WITHIN THE CURRENT. AGAIN...EYW AND MIA APPEAR TO BE USING NWPS WHICH DEPICTS THE CURRENT AND GIVING REASONABLE SOLUTIONS. WINDS TO HOLD UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING OFF TO 15-20 KT AND VEERING E-SE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACHING TEXAS COAST. SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY 7-9 FT THROUGH WED MORNING E OF 90W BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH...HIGHER IN STRAITS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING ANOTHER GALE EVENT SPILLING DOWN MEXICAN COAST WITH THIS NEXT FRONT THU THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH WINDS A BIT STRONGER 35-40 KT AND LARGER AREA OF GALES THAN LAST EVENT. WW3 AND ECWAVE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON PEAK SEAS 12-13 FT W OF 95W THU AND 14-15 FT WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT. LINGERING LOW-MID LEVEL TROFFING ACROSS NW CARIB AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TO KEEP FRONT FROM MOVING THROUGH SE GULF AND S THIRD OF FL PER LATEST MODEL RUNS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. WEAKENING FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NW PORTIONS FROM NEAR W CENTRAL CUBA TO SE COAST OF YUCATAN. NELY WINDS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 15-20 KT IN LEE OF CUBA BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH SEAS LIKELY 6-8 FT IN N PORTIONS OF YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD LOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB NEAR 17N75W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR ARUBA...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ALONG TROUGH...WHERE CURACAO TNCC REPORTED ALMOST 2.5 INCHES PAST 24 HOURS. LOW TO DRIFT W NEXT 36-48 HOURS AND FILL...WITH MODERATE ELY FINALLY RETURNING E OF 70W BY TUE NIGHT AS ATLC FRONT BEGINS TO LAY DOWN MORE NNE TO SSW. MODERATE ELY TO SPREAD W OF 75W BY THU EVENING...BUT MODELS SUGGEST NW TO SE WEAKNESS TO PERSIST ACROSS W PORTIONS THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH WED IN MIXED SWELL. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BEHIND W ATLC COLD FRONT TO BEGIN REACHING N PORTIONS OF ATLC WATERS EARLY THU AND CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS- ECENS BLEND. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS WHILE SLOWLY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS BAHAMAS AND INTO W CENTRAL CUBA AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB N TO 25N. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT ACROSS OHIO VALLEY INDUCING STRONG NELY FLOW ACROSS ATLC WATERS BEHIND FRONT WITH 25-30 KT BL FLOW FLOWING THROUGH BAHAMAS AND STRAITS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY BUILD SEAS...WITH VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE WINDS DROP OF QUICKLY. SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE TO SINK S INTO NW PORTIONS TONIGHT WITH WINDS 25-30 KT BEHIND IT SPREADING ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND THUS CONCUR WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN FREQUENT GUSTS THERE. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY TO 10-12 FT BEHIND FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED E OF BAHAMAS...BUT SECONDARY MAX OFFSHORE WATERS N OF CANAVERAL. MODELS SUGGESTING MAX SEAS BEHIND FRONT AROUND 00Z WED BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU BEFORE ABATING NW TO SE THU NIGHT AND FRI. NE SWELL TO HIT ATLC COASTS OF CARIB ISLANDS BY WED EVENING-NIGHT. WILL BLEND IN NWPS ACROSS BAHAMAS AND THROUGH STRAITS TO DEPICT WAVE AGAINST CURRENT EFFECTS BUT CANNOT USE NWPS IN LEE OF BAHAMAS AS SHALLOW BATHYMETRY PRODUCING WELL UNDERESTIMATED SEAS IN 25 KT NE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.