000 AGXX40 KNHC 030805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN INITIAL COLD FRONT BECOMING ILL DEFINED AND EXTENDS FROM STRAITS OF FL ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE SECONDARY BOUNDARY DEFINED BY FINE CLOUD LINE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING SW INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. WIND FIELD BEHIND BOTH BOUNDARIES BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND VEER N TO NNE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. AFTERNOON SCAT PASSES SHOWED A FEW 35 KT WIND FLAGS ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALES CURRENTLY ASSUMED TO BE OCCURRING S OF 21N IN FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SEAS 11-12 FT THERE. BUOY 42055 NOW AT 10 FT WHICH IS 2-3 FT ABOVE WW3 AND 1.5 FT ABOVE ECWAVE AND WILL ADJUST FCST ACCORDINGLY THROUGH FIRST FEW PERIODS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH BAHAMAS AND FAR NW CARIB THROUGH 48 HOURS AS LARGE SFC HIGH SLIDES NE ACROSS THE MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. GALES LIKELY ENDING VERY SOON WITH STRONG WINDS CONFINED TO W HALF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE SUBSIDING THIS MORNING TO LESS THAN 25 KT BY AROUND 15Z. GRADIENT NW OF DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE TO MAINTAIN NE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS SE PORTIONS THIS MORNING THEN ALL OF E HALF OF BASIN BY EVENING THEN GRADUALLY VEER MORE ENE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AND BACK OFF VERY SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ACROSS E AND NE PORTIONS THROUGH MON THEN BUILD TO 7-9 TUE AND WINDS VEER MORE ELY ACROSS NE PORTIONS AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT. WIND BLOWING DIRECTLY AGAINST GULF STREAM THROUGH THE STRAITS AND AROUND SE FL MON EVENING THROUGH TUE WILL AMPLIFY SEAS TO SEVERAL FT ABOVE WW3...AND I LIKE WHAT I SEE IN ISC FROM EYW AND MIA...LIKELY FROM NWPS. WILL LIKELY USE NWPS THROUGH THESE AREAS AS WELL AS IN LEE OF BAHAMAS WITH THIS EVENT...BUT OTHERWISE IT HAS BEEN TOO LOW. WINDS AND SEAS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY ON WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN LLVL TROF ACROSS ERN CARIB PAST 36 HRS HAS LIFTED NW AND IS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN DOM REP THEN NE INTO ATLC. LLVL LOW REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB NEAR 16.5N75W...WITH SELY FLOW TO THE E INDUCING BROAD CONVERGENCE ACROSS CARIB COASTAL WATERS FROM P.R. TO DOM REP WITH SCT CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THIS AREA PRODUCING OPTIMUM CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR PERSISTANT DEEP CNVTN...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NNW AND INTO ATLC WATERS AND EXTREME SE BAHAMAS BY MON. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRESH NELY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPILL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TODAY AND THEN IN LEE OF CUBA TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. FLOW ACROSS ATLC AND E GULF TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE ELY BY LATE TUE WITH RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADES ACROSS E PORTIONS. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MIXED SWELL KEEPING SEAS 5-7 FT TODAY AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS MEAN-ECMWF BLEND. COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION ACROSS THE STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL BUT CONTINUES PROGRESS ACROSS W ATLC...NOW MOVING THROUGH FAR NW BAHAMAS. NNW WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND FRONT WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WIND VEERS MORE N THEN FRESHEN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING QUICKLY. FRONT TO REACH FROM JUST NW OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS EVENING AND FROM NEAR 30N64W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 00Z TUE. BROAD AREA OF AROUND 25 KT WINDS BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MON WILL PUMP UP SEAS TO 10-12 FT FROM OFFSHORE OF CANAVERAL TO NEAR 70W BEHIND FRONT AND THEN INCREASE FURTHER MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS VERY LONG AND BROAD NE FETCH PREVAILS BEHIND FRONT...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING NARROW ZONE OF 30 KT WINDS JUST BEHIND FRONT BETWEEN 30N AND OFFSHORE OF BAHAMAS. HAVE BLENDED IN HIGHER ECWAVE WITH WW3 FOR THIS PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR GALES OCCURRING BEHIND FRONT AND JUST N OF AREA TUE NIGHT TO SPREAD S AND SW INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS. WILL USE NWPS FOR LEE OF BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL BEYOND TONIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.