000 AGXX40 KNHC 021708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 108 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE....NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS. INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FL BIG BEND TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SE TO EXTREME SE GULF WATERS TONIGHT... THEN MOVE SE OF AREA ON SUN. A SECONDARY RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MS DELTA TO NE MEXICO...WILL REACH THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON SUN AND QUICKLY LOSE IDENTITY WITH N WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND SECOND FRONT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD S AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KT...EXCEPT HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MINIMAL GALE 30-35 KT/SEAS 8-11 FT OVER SW GULF WATERS FROM 20.5-24N W OF 94W THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 KT OVER W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNRISE ON SUN...AND FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT ON SUN EVENING. BY THEN...POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL HAVE CLOCKED TO THE NE FLOW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND ACROSS THE N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN BASIN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN GULF WATERS ON MON WITH E WINDS 20-25 KT/SEAS 5-8 FT AND BUILDING 6-9 FT ON TUE. PERHAPS WILL HAVE SOME STEEP 7-10 KT SEAS IN GULF STREAM AS THE STRONG E WIND BUCKS THE E BOUND CURRENT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH E-SE RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS...AND 5-10 KT SE-S FLOW OVER W PART AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF TX COAST WED EVENING. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL DISSECT GULF FROM CENTRAL FL TO YUCATAN PENINSULA THU NIGHT...WITH THE N FLOW AT 25-30 KT OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE....NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS. N-S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ALONG 73W AND 65W CONTINUE TO PROGRESS W IN PHASE WITH SW EXTENT OF TUTT THAT HAS MOVED W ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW PRES IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN TROUGH AT 14N74W BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN A WEAK LOW. UPPER TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS NW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN AREA TO THE E OF THE TUTT AXIS...AND PROVIDING UPPER VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS. MODERATE E-SE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA E OF THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH...WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE W OF 73W TILL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO W GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN NIGHT. THE POST- FRONTAL NE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE WATERS JUST S OF CUBA ON SUN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ON TUE EVENING...THEN CHANGING LITTLE THROUGH LATE THU. LIGHT N WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE W OF 74W BY MID WEEK...WITH GENTLE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS AREA E OF 74W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS WEIGHTED HIGHER WITH ECMWF AFTER 72 HOURS. FAIR CONFIDENCE...NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE SE CONUS PRECEDED BY SLY 20-25 KT FLOW ABOUT 300 NM E OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AND SUPPORTING ONLY 15-20 KT THIS EVENING. THE POST- FRONTAL NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY BECOME N-NE 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUN. FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM 31N58W TO TO E CUBA ON MON...FROM 28N55W TO E CUBA ON TUE...THE BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM 23N55W TO SE BAHAMAS ON WED WITH GRADIENT THEN BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE WATERS SE OF BERMUDA ON TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.