000 AGXX40 KNHC 011830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WEIGHTED WITH 12Z GFS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW NORTH ATLC SW ACROSS FLORIDA TO 23N95W IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS AND IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE BASIN AS A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN 5-6 FT ACROSS NW THIRD OF BASIN...GENERATED FROM FRESH RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT...REACHING THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING...FROM EXTREME S FL TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z SUN AND THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N PORTIONS OF YUCATAN AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z MON. WINDS INITIALLY BEHIND FRONT ARE FORECAST 15 KT AND LESS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT... BUT SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO NW GULF EARLY SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN TO GREATLY ENHANCE CAA AND PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...AND YIELD 20-25 KT NLY FLOW W OF 90W ON SAT...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 25-30 KT S OF 24N AND W OF 96W. GEFS PROBS SHOWING MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES THERE SAT-SAT NIGHT WHILE SREF PEAKS AT 45% SAT NIGHT. 3 GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN BL...AND THIS EARLY IN SEASON IS LIKELY TO MIX DOWN TO SFC...THEREFORE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN ALONG LOWER MEXICAN COAST THROUGH SUN 06Z WITH SEAS BUILDING THERE TO 8-10 FT...USING HIGHER END OF ECWAVE OUTPUT. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W PORTION OF STRAITS EARLY MON AS FRESH NE FLOW BUILDS ACROSS SE PORTIONS LATE SUN INTO MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS INVERTED TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W-70W TO THE EAST OF A BROAD WESTWARD DRIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N79W. ANOTHER WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 60W WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KT THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA. NORTHERLY INFLOW INTO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CUT OFF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME ELONGATED OVER THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE E WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN SHIFTING W AND NW...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN SPREAD NW INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH EARLY SUN FOR HIGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. MODELS INDICATE BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF 16N74W SAT THROUGH SUN WITH WEAK FLOW W AND SW OF LOW AND BROAD CONVERGENCE TO E AND NE. TROUGH ALONG 60W MAY PROVIDE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY AS IT SHIFTS NW ACROSS NE CARIB TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN THE CARIBBEAN ARE ANTICIPATED GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY TONIGHT...WHILE E TO SE WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND THE TROUGH AT 60W AND ASSOCIATED ELY WIND SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE SEAS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC TO 7-8 FT AND ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS OF LEEWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS BLEEDING THROUGH PASSAGES AND INTO E CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WEIGHTED WITH 12Z GFS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 34N62W SW TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W PROVIDING E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT S OF THE AXIS AND S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT NORTH OF THE AXIS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND BEGIN TO ERODE WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS WITH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT...HOWEVER SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 7 TO 9 FT WEST OF THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND THEN BUILD 8 TO 11 FT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED POCKET OF 12 FT SEAS NE OF THE BAHAMAS NOTED ON WW3 DATA EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING SAT AND SAT NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.