000 AGXX40 KNHC 010812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 412 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW ATLC SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THEN W-SW ACROSS ACROSS S CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND IS WEAKENING ACROSS BASIN AS A COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING SE ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SE OF FRONT FROM SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BRO. SEAS STILL 5-6 FT ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF NW THIRD OF BASIN...GENERATED FROM FRESH RETURN FLOW OF PAST 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. MODELS SHOW FRONT CATCHING UP TO PRE FRONTAL TROUGH BY 12Z THIS MORNING AS BOTH SHIFT E-SE...WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT FORECAST ACROSS LA-MS-AL COASTAL WATERS IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH THROUGH 12Z. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT...REACHING FRONT CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING...FROM EXTREME S FL TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z SUN AND THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N PORTIONS OF YUCATAN AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z MON. WINDS INITIALLY BEHIND FRONT ARE FORECAST 15 KT AND LESS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO NW GULF EARLY SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN TO GREATLY ENHANCE CAA AND PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...AND YIELD 20-25 KT NLY FLOW W OF 90W ON SAT...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 25-30 KT S OF 24N AND W OF 96W. GEFS PROBS SHOWING MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES THERE SAT-SAT NIGHT WHILE SREF PEAKS AT 45% SAT NIGHT. 3 GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN BL...AND THIS EARLY IN SEASON IS LIKELY TO MIX DOWN TO SFC...AND WILL THUS BUMP UP CURRENT FORECAST TO SHOW SMALL AREA OF GALES ALONG LOWER MEXICAN COAST THROUGH SUN 06Z WITH SEAS BUILDING THERE TO 12-13 FT...USING HIGHER END OF MWW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECWAVE. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W PORTION OF STRAITS EARLY MON AS FRESH NE FLOW BUILDS ACROSS SE PORTIONS LATE SUN INTO MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME ILL DEFINED ACROSS YUCATAN...WHILE SRN PORTION IS BECOMING ABSORBED IN DEVELOPING VORTEX IN EPAC ALONG 90W. INVERTED TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS ERN CARIB ALONG 65-66W TO THE E OF LARGE WWD DRIFTING TUTT LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB. YET ANOTHER WWD MOVING TROUGH WAS ALONG 59W WITH CONVERGENCE AND SCT MODEST CNVTN E OF AXIS. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED NELY FLOW AROUND 20 KT THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF S COAST OF DOM REP...WHILE SUFFICIENT FETCH OF ELY FLOW AROUND 20 KT HAS SHIFTED ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL PORTIONS TO RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT AT BUOY 42059. NLY INFLOW INTO TUTT LOW WILL BE CUT OFF BY TONIGHT AND LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY W...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME ELONGATED OVER WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE E WILL SHIFT W AND NW AND ACROSS PR AND HISPANIOLA NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SPREAD NW INTO SW N ATLC THROUGH EARLY SUN FOR HIGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN SLOPES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. MODELS INDICATE BROAD AND WEAK SFC LOW TO SLOWLY DEVELOP INVOF OF 16N74W SAT THROUGH SUN WITH WEAK FLOW W AND SW OF LOW AND BROAD CONVERGENCE TO E AND NE. TROUGH ALONG 59W MAY PROVIDE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY AS IT SHIFTS NW ACROSS NE CARIB LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS AND SEAS INSIDE CARIB TO FALL GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY TONIGHT...WHILE E TO SE WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND TROUGH AT 59W AND ASSOCIATED ELY WIND SWELL TO RAISE SEAS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC TO 7-8 FT TODAY AND ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS OF LEEWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS BLEEDING THROUGH PASSAGES AND INTO E CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A SHEAR LINE LINGERS OVER THE SE WATERS AND THROUGH TURKS AND CAICOS AND IS DRIFTING WWD. WITH LATEST SCAT PASSES SHOWING 20-25 KT N OF LINE BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. SFC RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NE AND SLY FLOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS. MIXED SWELL YIELDING SEAS 7-8 FT ALONG AND NW OF SHEAR LINE AS OBSERVED BY BUOY 41047 AND AFTERNOON ALTIMETER PASSES. THE SHEAR LINE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI AS WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE FEATURE DECREASE BY SAT...AS HIGH SHIFTS NE AND PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TODAY INTO SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SAT MORNING AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N69W TO W CUBA EARLY SUN...AND FROM 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.