000 AGXX40 KNHC 290850 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013 UPDATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY UNDER SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING BAHAMAS SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LIGHT TO GENTLE INTENSITY RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE-E 20 KT WINDS WITH NE 20-25 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING SEAS IN THE RANGES OF 3-4 FT FROM 23N-26N...2-3 FT N OF 26N AND HIGHER SEAS OF 4-6 FT S OF 23N...AND EVEN HIGHER SEAS OF 6-7 IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NWP MODELS AGREE THAT THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT IN THE FAR SE GULF TO SLACKEN. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE VICINITY OF SE LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS EARLY ON FRI...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE FRI...AND FROM THE VICINITY OF SW FLORIDA TO 24N92W TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO ON SAT. NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION FRI AND SAT LEADING TO INCREASING NE WINDS OF 20 KT THERE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES FROM 0100 AND 0242 UTC HIGHLIGHTED NE-E WINDS OF 15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS WAS NOTED WITHIN 130 NM OF THE COAST. THE 0100 UTC ASCAT PASS CLEARLY SHOWED A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT OF 20 KT WINDS FROM THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC RELATED TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BUOYS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE REPORTING LOWER SEAS THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHEN COMBINED SEAS WERE UP 10 FT IN AN E SWELL. CURRENTLY SEAS AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THERE ARE 5-7 FT IN AN E SWELL. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W AT 15-20 KT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG 66W/67W S OF 18N. BUOY 42059 AT 15.0N 67.5W IS REPORTING NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE AREA WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE COAST OF WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT UNDER THE NE 20-25 KT WINDS...AND W OF 80W WHERE LOWER SEAS OF 3- 4 FT ARE EVIDENT BY BUOY 42057 AT 17N 81.5W AND AND BUOY 42056 AT 20N85W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING...THEN ENTER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THOSE WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE FIELDS SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ATTENDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE NE 20- 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST SHOULD RELAX WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE IN THAT AREA TUE THROUGH WED AS IT ALLOWS THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SEAS THERE SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 6 FT. THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PICKED UP NICELY BY THE NWP MODELS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WED AS IT ALSO WEAKENS. THE NE TO SE 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE TROUGH DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT WED AFTERNOON. THE 00 UTC GFS AND 00 ECMWF GUIDANCES DEPICT BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE IN THE FORECAST...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THERE IS CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON...AND INTO EARLY THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PORTIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...UPDATED MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N65W SW TO NEAR 25N72W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO EASTERN CUBA. NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N AND E OF 71W COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE ZONE 115. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS. THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT NW OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR NE 15-20 KT IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE BASIN. SEAS OVER THE BASIN ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR UP TO 6-7 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THU OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND STRENGTHENS FORCING THE STATIONARY FRONT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF ABOUT 26N IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE BY TUE...AND LAST INTO WED NIGHT AS IT THEN LOSES DEFINITION WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME NE AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 5- 6 FT RANGE NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 4-5 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN FAR SW PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODELS SUGGEST THE INCREASE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SEEN TO THE S OF 29N. BY THU AFTERNOON... ...MOSTLY E WINDS THROUGHOUT AT 15-20 KT EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW PART WHERE THEY VEER TO THE SE AT 10-15 KT. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE PORTION (ZONE 115) BY LATE THU...BUT DIMINISHING TO E 10-15 KT FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. WINDS IN THE FAR NW PORTION WILL BECOME S-SW AROUND 15 KT FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS THERE 5-6 FT...AND 6-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SAT...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE SAT FOLLOWED BY NW 15-20 KT WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.