000
AGXX40 KNHC 281803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE SE U.S. WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH IS LINGERING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA PREVAILS N OF 23N WITH SEAS IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW PREVAILS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N AROUND THE TROUGH WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
 
THE HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THU WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE DROPPING SOUTHWARD EXTENDING NE TO SW
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THU ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
SE TEXAS BY FRI MORNING AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS
BY FRI NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7
FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 4-6 FT OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONG WINDS. THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THEN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE
NIGHT...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN
THU AND FRI WHILE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH ACTIVE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC
WATERS WITH SEAS 4-6 FT E OF 74W AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...3-4 FT
OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 2-4 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WILL HELP PUSH
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...N OF 26N...EASTWARD AS
A COLD FRONT WHILE THE BOUNDARY S OF 26N WILL LINGER AS A SHEAR
LINE OVER THE SW WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA
MIDWEEK WHILE THE SHEAR LINE SLOWLY DISSIPATES BY WEEKS END. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST N OF THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL FRESHEN WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.