000 AGXX40 KNHC 280819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. IS CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME OVER THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 24N E OF 86W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LIGHT TO GENTLE INTENSITY RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE-E 20 KT WINDS INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING SEAS IN THE RANGES OF 3-4 FT FROM 23N-26N...2-3 FT N OF 26N AND HIGHER SEAS OF 4-6 FT S OF 23N AND SMALL POCKETS OF COMBINED SEAS OF 7 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NWP MODELS AGREE THAT THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE THE GRADIENT IN THE FAR SE GULF TO SLACKEN. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST...AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO FAR NE MEXICO BY EARLY FRI...AND FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF ON FRI. NLY WINDS OF 10- 15 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLY IN LINES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES FROM 0122 AND 0302 UTC HIGHLIGHTED NE-E WINDS OF 15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 0122 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED HIGHER WINDS NE TO E OF 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG 57W/58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BUOY 41040 AT 14.5N 53W IS REPORTING E WINDS OF 20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 16N E OF ABOUT 81W...AND 2-4 W OF 81W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...THEN MOVE THROUGH THOSE WATERS DURING TUE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ATTENDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W AS IT UNDER THE FAVORABLE SE QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LOW AT 16N54W. EXPECT THIS WEATHER TO FOLLOW THE WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN DUE IN PART TO WEAKER RIDGING TO THE N AND THE INTERRUPTION IN THE ATLC FETCH THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING LATE TUE...AND INTO EARLY THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N65W SW TO EASTERN CUBA...WITH A TROUGH AHEAD OF IT FROM 25N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE 0126 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT NW OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR NE 20 KT IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS EVIDENT. E WINDS OF 15 KT ARE NOTED TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 70W. SEAS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR UP TO 6-7 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND STRENGTHENS FORCING THE STATIONARY FRONT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME NE AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 4-5 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS ...EXCEPT SEAS 6-8 FT FAR SW PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO COUNTER CURRENT FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST THE INCREASE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SEEN TO THE S OF 29N. BY THU AFTERNOON...MOSTLY E WINDS THROUGHOUT AT 15-20 KT EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW PART WHERE THEY VEER TO THE SE AT 10-15 KT. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE PORTION (ZONE 115) BY LATE THU...BUT DIMINISHING TO E 10-15 KT FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. WINDS IN THE FAR NW PORTION WILL BECOME S-SW AROUND 15 KT FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS THERE 5-6 FT...AND 6-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.