000 AGXX40 KNHC 261806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FT PER BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W. WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. A COASTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP AND RUNS FROM 22N97W TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MOST RECENT OSCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WELL TO THE NORTH...AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HIGH PRES WEAKEN AS IT DIGS SE TOWARD N FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONG NE TO E WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND SUN. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE STATES AGAIN MON INTO TUE...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON...WITH FRESH SE RETURN FLOW INTO THE TEXAS COAST BY TUE. NE TO E WINDS MAY REACH 25 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. A STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE THE NE CONUS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 21N78W TO 19N87W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH ISOLATED WIND BARBS OF 30 KT N OF THE SHEAR LINE... INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC E OF 75W...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT OFF NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE REACHING 9 FT AT BUOY 42059 NEAR 15N67W. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF AREA ALONG 43W. THE WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. SO FAR...COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT WILL MOVE WWD AT 20 KT...THEN SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOTED MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS...WITH 7-8 FT SEAS JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS NW OF AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR SEAS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED... A STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE THE NE CONUS COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.