000 AGXX40 KNHC 251939 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 339 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS REMAIN N OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT MAINLY MODERATE N OF 27N. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1640 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 35 KT. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT S OF 20N W OF 95W THIS EVENING UNTIL 00Z. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATE NIGHT ALTIMETER PASSES REVEALED SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE SAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES E WITH THE GRADIENT SLACKENING A BIT. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING E...WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED TO VEER TO E-SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW GULF LATE WED INTO THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS CAPTURED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS... WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THE INCREASED TRADE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SAGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF SE N AMERICA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO AMPLIFYING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NOW JUST W OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. MEANWHILE...A WEAK TROUGH N OF GUYANA IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THESE IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE BASIN LATE SUN INTO MON AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PASSING 55W MON...AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE. MWW3 WAVE OUTPUT SHOWS AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF 8-11 FT SEAS MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W LATE MON INTO TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO NW CUBA...BREAKING A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION SE OF THE FRONT AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS...WITH 7-9 FT SEAS JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SAT. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN...THEN SAG S OF 31N THROUGH LATE SUN BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR SEAS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT S OF 20N W OF 95W. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.