000 AGXX40 KNHC 240800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA KEYS ACROSS THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND MODIFYING OVER THE STILL WARM GULF WATERS. THE MAIN IMPACT IS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO AND OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF...S OF 25N. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF. OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ...AT 06 UTC A SHIP REPORTED WINDS TO GALE FORCE WERE STILL IN EFFECT NEAR 19N97W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AS THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR FUNNELING ALONG THE COASTAL TERRAIN DECREASES. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA HOWEVER INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE GULF AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E OVER GEORGIA. THIS WILL ALLOW MODERATE NE TO E FLOW EXCEPT FOR SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING. THIS IS ENHANCING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS RESOLVED WELL IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WHICH IS SOMEWHAT RESOLVED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 03 UTC. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...THE PRES GRADIENT IS STARTING TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE AFTER HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA EXTENDING ALONG ROUGHLY 23N THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ALLOWING PULSES OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES...WITH LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINOUS COASTLINE OF NE COLOMBIA AS INDICATED BY METOP-B ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2 UTC. ALTIMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS HOLDING AROUND 5 TO 7 FT OVERALL IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 6 TO 8 FT LIKELY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 55W AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PENETRATE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH LATE TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING THIS WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT..WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 360 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS BEYOND 65W BY SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SET UP W OF THE FRONT S OF 27N FRI THROUGH SAT...DIMINISHING SUN THROUGH MON. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS STILL BY MON MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.