000 AGXX40 KNHC 230744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0345 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE DAY 4 AND 5. LATEST METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN GULF COAST SHOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING AS FAR SOUTH AS COATZACOALCOS IN THE FAR SW GULF. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THIS DENSER AIRMASS ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. A 0300 UTC ASCAT SHOWED 30 TO 35 KT WINDS FROM TUXPAN TO THE CITY OF VERACRUZ. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE METOP-A AND METOP-B RETRIEVALS WITH THE METOP- A 5 KT HIGHER SHOWING THE GALES HAVE ALREADY STARTED. GALES WERE ANTICIPATED BY EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN THE PATTERN...AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VERACRUZ LASTING THROUGH TODAY. FARTHER NORTH...A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES COVER THE NW GULF. THE FIRST IS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ CITY MEXICO. A SECOND REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY CREEPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NW GULF. THIS BOUNDARY HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST BUOY AND LAND-BASED OBSERVATIONS...IT WAS REPOSITIONED AT 0300 UTC MORE TO THE NW...AND FOR THE 06 UTC MAP IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE SUPPORT TO THE REINFORCING FRONT. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE TODAY...BEFORE SAGGING SE AND REACHING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SECOND IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THU...PUSHING ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE THROUGH THE SE STATES FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS ALL BUT S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FOLLOWING ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. SHORTER PERIOD SEAS FROM THE FRESH TRADES ARE MIXING WITH LONGER PERIODS NE SWELL ARE RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA...AS NOTED BY A EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW THE FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N77W TO 29N81W WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N72W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY...FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU...THEN STALL FROM 31N63W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE INCREASE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING FRONT IN THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SHOW WINDS PEAKING NEAR 25 KT N OF 30N LATER TODAY WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT STAY BELOW 20 KT FOR THE MOST PART INTO FRI AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MODIFIES. STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE STATES FRI WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20 KT FIRST N OF 29N W OF 77W WHERE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. THIS WILL DIMINISH INTO SAT...BUT A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FRESH NE FLOW S OF 26N W OF 75W TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.