000
AGXX40 KNHC 221753
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
153 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE DAY 4 AND 5.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N82W TO 26N94W TO 22N94W WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM TAMPA TO 23N93W TO 18N95W LATE
TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF...REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COAST OF
VERACRUZ IN THE FAR SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 18N95W BY LATE THU. REINFORCING HIGH PRES
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW NE WINDS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE GULF FRI INTO SAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO A BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS ALL BUT S CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. FRESH TRADES WILL FOLLOW
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W
TODAY...AND AGAIN ON THU AND FRI. NE TO E SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N77W TO 29N81W WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO SE FLORIDA
WED...THEN STALL FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE FRI
THROUGH SAT.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.