000 AGXX40 KNHC 220747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/SREF AND MWW3 BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE DAY 4 AND 5. A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WILL BE OVERTAKEN LATER TODAY BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE MERGED FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF...EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT AS TO WHETHER GALES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT BY WED...THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PROBABLITIES OF 34 KT WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT OFF VERACRUZ WED. THIS AGREES WITH SREF OUTPUT AS WELL FOR THE SAME TIME AND PLACE. WITH THAT...AND GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR GALES WHEN THE FIRST FEW GOOD COOL AIRMASSES FILTER DOWN THE TERRAIN ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GMZ023 FOR WED. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 87W THROUGH WED. REIFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING E ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF 20 KT NE FLOW ACROSS THE NE GULF FRI INTO SAT...MAINTAINING THE STRONG OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED WINDS IN THE SW GULF INTO THE WEEKEND AND DELIVERING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL IDENTIFIABLE IN ASCAT DATA MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND START TO BECOME DIFFUSE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW VENEZUELA. A WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY WILL AMPLIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WED...THEN WEAKEN AS IT DRIVES W THORUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN N OF THE BASIN...TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS LESS THAN IS NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SLIGHT SEAS. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE VENEZUELAN AND COLOMBIAN COASTS...BUT STILL BELOW NORMS. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC E OF 55W TO WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER DATA IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INDICATE SEAS TO 7 TO 8 FT IN THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW IN THAT AREA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 40W WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THU INTO FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RELATED TO STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED FROM 23N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN IS MAINTAINING ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. BUOYS AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS OF MOSTLY 2 TO 3 FT DUE TO THE BELOW NORMAL WIND REGIME. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL SHIFT SE...REACHING FROM 31N72W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED...AND FROM 31N62W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT N OF 27N...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 15 TO 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED. THE RAPIDLY EASTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO ONLY BUILD TO ABOUT 5 FT PER MWW3 GUIDANCE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED INTO THU AS THE INVADING AIRMASS MODIFIES AND MIXES OUT OVER THE STILL WARM WATERS. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE WILL PUSH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI...REACHING FROM 31N62W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THIS STRONGER PUSH...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING WED. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.