000 AGXX40 KNHC 211859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE DAY 4 AND 5. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE VICINITY OF TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO 26N89W AND TO NEAR 24N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO NW GULF...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS THAT THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK FOR THE TIME BEING. LATEST BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT NW OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. WINDS SE OF THE FRONT ARE SE-S AT 10 KT WITH SE 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF PORTION. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT SE OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 88W...AND 1- 2 FT E OF 88W. SEAS W OF THE FRONT ARE 2-4 FT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE N. THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL HANG BACK WITH A PIECE POSSIBLY BREAKING OFF INTO TROUGH FEATURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND TUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF EARLY TUE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TUE NIGHT...AND FROM AND FROM S FLORIDA TO 22N93W TO FAR SW GULF WED EVENING. MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THAT OF RECENT DAYS. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE NLY FLOW BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE IT BECOMES NE-E WED THROUGH FRI. WINDS BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT IN THE NW GULF...AND NW-N 20-25 KT IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF ZONES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 6 FT TUE INTO WED NIGHT IN THE NW GULF...UP TO 8 FT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WED NIGHT...AND HIGHER SEAS TO POSSIBLY 12 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF. THESE SEAS QUICKLY SUBSIDE SOME THU AND FRI...BUT LINGER TO 9 OR 10 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN SAT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE AGAIN SHOWS WINDS UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF WED AND THROUGH MUCH OF THU. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH ON WED AND WED EVENING ALONG THE COAST MEXICO NEAR THE VICINITY OF VERACRUZ...AND NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS THERE. ON THU...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS THE AREA...AND INTERACTS WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO RESULT IN INCREASING NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE GULF S OF ABOUT 29N. THE WINDS THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRI INTO SAT AS THE PARENT HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ONLY FEATURE THAT CONTINUES TO SHOW PRETTY WELL IN THE ANALYSIS IS A TROPICAL WAVE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC POSITION OF THIS WAVE IS ROUGHLY ALONG 70W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WELL TO THE NE OF THE WAVE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH ARE UNDER THE FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY LIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1438 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED THE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WAVE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS 2-4 FT IN THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. SEAS ARE LOWER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RANGES OF 1-3 FT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN NE SWELLS PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THOSE ZONES. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH EARLY WED. IN ITS WAKE...NE-E 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE SEA. THE NE SWELLS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SET OF SWELLS TONIGHT AND TUE ELEVATING SEAS THERE TO AROUND 8 OR 9 FT INTO SAT S ALSO ANOTHER WAVE/TROUGH FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THOSE WATERS BEGINNING ON TUE WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND EASTERN ATLC HIGH PRES RESULTS IN E TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN TROPICAL N ATLC WITH THE FETCH OF THESE WINDS REINFORCING THE 8 FT SEAS. THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI BEFORE IT BEGINS TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ON THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS TO EXTEND FROM 31N78W SW TO INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY CAPE CANAVERAL. BEHIND IT...N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED BY THE BUOYS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING SWLY...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE AUTUMN SEASON MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT...REACHING FROM NEAR 31N73W TO SE FLORIDA BY WED EVENING...THEN BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS IT ALSO BECOMES DIFFUSE POSSIBLY INTO SAT. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 27N W OF 77W WED INTO THU...THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NE LATE THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE BASIN SHIFTS EWD. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SW FLOW WILL PROCEED THE FRONT N OF 28N AS WELL. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT BY WED EVENING IN THE FAR NRN WATERS OF ZONE 113...THEN SHIFT TO THE NE PORTION OF THE SAME ZONE...AND TO THE FAR NRN PORTION OF ZONE 116 BY FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE OVER THE NW PORTION TO 2-3 FT FRI AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN...BUT THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD SE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION INTO SAT WITH INCREASING NLY FLOW PUSHING THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E AS A COLD FRONT REACHING A PSN FROM NEAR 30N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY SAT. NLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT DIMINISH SAT AS HIGH PRES AGAIN SETTLES IN OVER THE BASIN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.