000
AGXX40 KNHC 210756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
355 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/SREF AND MWW3 BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A MOSTLY STALLED AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM N OF 
TAMPA FLORIDA ACROSS THE GULF TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING N FOR THE 
THE MOMENT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S. 10 TO 
15 KT ARE NOTED OUT OF THE E TO SE ACROSS THE NW GULF. THIS WILL 
NOT GET A CHANCE TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY HOWEVER BEFORE TONIGHT 
AS AN ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 
OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...THEN PUSH SE AND 
REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO 22N94W TO THE FAR SW GULF NEAR 18N95W. 
THE MAIN ISSUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY 
ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF 
THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ WED INTO THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING 
AS HIGH AS 13 FT BY LATE WED. A COLD MASS OF REINFORCING HIGH 
PRES BUILDS ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED INTO 
THU...MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT 
ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT W OF 87W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE HIGH PRES EXTENDING THROUGH THE SE 
STATES INTO FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS MAINLY S OF 26N 
AND PERSISTENT STRONG NW TO N FLOW OFF VERACRUZ THROUGH FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BUOY AND SHIP WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG SCATTEROMETER DATA 
INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE IS MIGRATING W INTO THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WAVE HAS AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS AS IT CAME INTO PHASE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED N 
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W. INSTABILITY ON THE SE SIDE OF THE 
UPPER CYCLONE IS ALSO AIDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE WILL 
DEAMPLIFY THROUGH TUE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADES ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN 
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THESE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE 
ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 55W AND 
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS 
BUILDING TO 7 FT. SEAS WILL LIKELY TOP 8 FT IN THIS AREA THROUGH 
TODAY AS FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WED IN THIS AREA...AS ANOTHER WEAK 
TROUGH MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 KT 
AND 8 FT SEAS BY THU. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY FROM 31N76W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL 
FLORIDA. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29N72W. 
THE FRONT AND LOW PRES ARE MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES PATTERN 
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN FAIRLY LIMITED 
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVERALL. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE 
THROUGH TONIGHT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE 
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH 
NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA 
AND N OF GRAND BAHAMA ON WED. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS 
E...REACHING AND STALLING FROM 31N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY THU. REINFORCING COOL AIR WILL PUSH 
INTO THE WATERS W OF 75W FRI...ALLOWING BRIEF RESURGENCE OF 
WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE AREA N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.