000 AGXX40 KNHC 201852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA SW TO 26N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N94W AND TO VERACRUZ WHERE IT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING N. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE U.S. THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS SWLY. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS ADVECTING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEWD TO ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE W OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY IN THE SW GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING LIGHTER NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAN PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED WITH SPEEDS NOW DOWN TO 10-15 KT WITH LOWER SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT IN NE-E WINDS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT SE OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 88W...AND 1-2 FT E OF 88W. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE COLD FRONT PORTION TO MOVE TOO FAR TO THE S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL STALL TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT MON AND MON NIGHT. THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT SHOULD BREAK...AND TRANSITION TO A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON MON AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN U.S. MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS MAY HELP INDUCE A SHORT- LIVED WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH BEFORE IT USHERS IN A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF EARLY TUE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY WED EVENING. MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THAT SEEN BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE NLY FLOW BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE IT BECOMES NE-E WED THROUGH FRI. WINDS BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT IN THE NW GULF...AND NW-N 20-25 KT IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF ZONES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 6 FT TUE INTO WED NIGHT IN THE NW GULF...UP TO 8 FT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WED NIGHT...AND HIGHER SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE FAR GULF. THESE SEAS QUICKLY SUBSIDE SOME THU AND FRI...BUT LINGER TO 9 OR 10 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF. THE GFS AGAIN SHOWS WINDS UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF ON WED. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF THESE WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH ON WED AND WED EVENING ALONG THE COAST MEXICO NEAR THE VICINITY OF VERACRUZ...AND NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS WITH ELEVATED SEAS THERE. ON THU...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG HIGH BUILDS S ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO RESULT IN INCREASING NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE GULF S OF ABOUT 29N. THESE WINDS THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRI AS THE PARENT HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS E TO THE MID-ATLC REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ONLY FEATURE ANALYZED IN THE BASIN TODAY IS A TROPICAL WAVE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC POSITION OF THIS WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 17N...AND MOVING W NW AT 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 17N...AND TO THE NE OF THE WAVE. ELSEWHERE...THE PRES GRADEINT REMAINS PRETTY LIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 15 UTC THIS MORNING PICKED UP ON A SMALL SWATH OF NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH A SLIGHTER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS 2-4 FT IN THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. SEAS ARE LOWER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RANGES OF 1-3 FT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN NE SWELLS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON EVENING...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH EARLY WED. IN ITS WAKE...NE-E 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE SEA. THE NE SWELLS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SET OF SWELLS MON NIGHT AND TUE ELEVATING SEAS THERE TO AROUND 8 FT INTO FRI AS ALSO ANOTHER WAVE/TROUGH FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THOSE WATERS BEGINNING ON TUE WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND EASTERN ATLC HIGH PRES RESULTS IN E TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN TROPICAL N ATLC WITH THE FETCH OF THESE WINDS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE 8 FT SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING...AND IS ANALYZED ON THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS FROM NEAR 31N78W SW TO INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY CAPE CANAVERAL. BEHIND IT...N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED BY THE BUOYS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING SWLY...THE FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW SWD PROGRESS THROUGH MON...THEN IT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT AND TUE. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT...REACHING FROM NEAR 31N73W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED AND FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 27N W OF 77W WED INTO THU...THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NE LATE THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE BASIN SHIFTS EWD. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SW FLOW WILL PROCEED THE FRONT N OF 28N AS WELL. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT BY WED EVENING IN THE FAR NRN WATERS OF ZONE 113...THEN SHIFT TO THE NE PORTION OF THE SAME ZONE...AND TO THE FAR NRN PORTION OF ZONE 116 BY FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE OVER THE NW PORTION TO 2-3 FT FRI AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.