000 AGXX40 KNHC 200741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 338 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/SREF AND MWW3 BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU IN THE SW GULF. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE TRAVERSING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE FIRST OF THESE EXTENDS FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA TO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS...AND APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK JUDGING BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO...AND SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH COOL AIR DRIFTING OVER THE STILL WARM WATERS OF THE NW GULF...DELIVERING FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 OR 8 FT OFF THE TAMAULIPAS COAST OF NE MEXICO. THE FIRST FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME OVERTAKEN BY THE STRONGER FRONT LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN FROM SW FLORIDA THE SW GULF BY LATE TODAY. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL RAPIDLY MODERATE ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT N AND BECOME DIFFUSE INTO MON...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON/EARLY TUE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL SPONSOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR NW GULF THROUGH LATE TUE. THE GFS...ALONG WITH THE SREF...REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ ON WED. THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO NOT MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR GALES HOWEVER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OF GETTING AT LEAST 30 KT OFF VERACRUZ...SO SEAS NEAR THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO REACH AS HIGH AS 10 FT BY LATE WED S OF 20N AND W OF 95W. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT SLIDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF COASTS LATE WED INTO THU...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA AND NW COLOMBIA. DATA FROM ELSEWHERE INDICATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PERSISTING. THE BELOW NORMAL TRADE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK PRES PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY A PERSISTENT LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS...BREAKING UP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE. THIS WILL LIMIT TRADE WIND FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. FRONTAL INCURSIONS N OF THE BASIN WILL PREVENT TRADES FROM STRENGTHENING APPRECIABLY LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W WHICH MAY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 20 KT TRADES BY THU DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED LATER THIS MORNING BY A SURGE OF COOLER AIR...BUT THIS WILL MODIFY QUICKLY OVER THE WARMER WATERS OFF THE COAST N OF 27N W OF 77W...AND OTHER THAN A BRIEF NW WIND SHIFT...LITTLE INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. 1014 MB LOW PRES REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR 28N74W. THIS HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM ITS SUPPORTING UPPER LOW...AND WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO 28N80W BY LATE TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING N AGAIN MON. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE...REACHING FROM 31N73W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE WED AND FROM 31N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 27N W OF 77W WED INTO THU. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SW FLOW WILL PROCEED THE FRONT N OF 28N AS WELL. MWW3 AND ECWAVE ESTIMATES SHOW SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FT NEIGHBORHOOD N OF 28N WED INTO THU AS WELL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.